Why Obama still needs to get out of Iraq

There's been a lot of speculation about what Barack Obama's real policy is going to be towards Iraq. Will he stick to the 16 month timeline for the withdrawal of combat brigades promised in the campaign or adopt the more "cautious", conditions-based approach recommended by many in the foreign policy establishment and military (i.e. the Council of Foreign Relations/Brookings Institution argument for maintaining current troop levels until after the Iraqi national elections in late 2009/early 2010, or McCain and Lieberman's "chance for consensus")? There's a lot of argument going on over these questions, but little clarity. That's especially worrying because when the administration takes office on January 21 it will be plunged immediately into a plethora of challenges and conflicts in an Iraq which won't wait for it to get up to speed. 

Last week, I wrote a framing memo for a discussion of these questions hosted by the progressive foreign policy organization the National Security Network. A version of that memo appears on the cover of today's ForeignPolicy.com.  I lay out the very real challenges inside of Iraq, which remains just as fragile and conflicted as it was before the election (see my piece with CAP's Brian Katulis), and sketch out the key calender events and likely contingencies over the first year. I argue that the argument for an early, significant "down payment" withdrawal of U.S. troops is stronger than ever, that implementing the SOFA/WA should be the highest priority, and that Obama should resist the forces of institutional inertia which will resist such withdrawal.  Read it here at the new Foreign Policy!