I've been seeing a lot of gnashing of teeth over the reports that the U.S. plans to delay withdrawal to outside the city of Mosul beyond the date originally specified in the Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government. The general line seems to be that this represents General Odierno's end-run around the SOFA and the first step in the slippery slope of paving the way for keeping U.S. troops there past December 2011.
Now, I've been as focused as anyone -- more, probably -- on the urgency of the need for U.S. adherence to the SOFA and a clear, strong commitment to the withdrawal strategy even when faced with security challenges. I continue to argue for this even if, as appears increasingly likely, the promised Iraqi referendum on the SOFA (which was the main "mechanism" for enforcing U.S. adherence via the threat of its failure in the public vote) never actually takes place. I have called out General Odierno and had public arguments with his team over the point in the past. But I don't see the Mosul decision as this kind of problem, certainly not of the degree that it's being painted.
Why? Because the SOFA always made allowances for adjustments if requested by the Iraqi government. Mosul remains pretty much a hot war zone, from all I hear, unlike most of the other cities -- and in those cities, no such adjustment appears to be contemplated. This doesn't look like the tearing up of the SOFA, it looks like the correct application of the SOFA -- mutually adjusting one aspect pragmatically while maintaining the strategic commitment to its overall framework.
The key is not the details like continuing to operate in Mosul in tandem with Iraqi forces. The key is the commitment to the withdrawal timeline. And that commitment has not wavered a bit. Hillary Clinton's remarks in Baghdad the other day, like Obama's during his short visit, very strongly and clearly reinforced that American commitment-- sending an important and clear message that upticks in violence will not be allowed to change the strategic commitment.
The greater challenge to the SOFA may actually be the sudden emergence of exactly the kind of political challenge which I anticipated back in my "briefing book" article for FP.com in January. Iraqi outrage over an American mission which led to the death of Iraqi civilians could become a political football. If Iraqi politicians demand their prosecution, it will put Odierno and the U.S. in a very difficult position. Hopefully they've got a course of action laid out for this.
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