What is Moqtada al-Sadr doing in Turkey?

Posted By Marc Lynch Sunday, May 3, 2009 - 7:11 PM Share

^{Moqtada al-Sadr in Istanbul. Source: al-Sharq al-Awsat.}

We haven't heard much lately from Moqtada al-Sadr, the erstwhile leader of the Sadrist movement and the Jaysh al-Mahdi who is reportedly living in Iran. Sadr has not been officially been seen in public since June of 2007, and last appeared on the media in al-Jazeera interview in May 2008. So it is a bit of a surprise to see him suddenly appear in Turkey for two days of talks. What's he up to?

According to Turkish reports, Sadr met with Prime Minister Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul, along with other Turkish officials.No official statement was released from the meetings with Turkish officials. Al-Zaman reports that an unidentified Turkish official said that they discussed the security situation in Iraq and the evolving Turkish-Iranian relationship. A leading Sadrist said that Sadr went to Turkey from Tehran to follow up on conversations between Turkish officials and Sadrists in Najaf about the future of Iraq (which according to al-Zaman is the first official admission by the Sadrists that he has been in Iran).

Perhaps as important, Sadr also reportedly met with a large number of Sadrist officials and personalities as well as a delegation of top leaders who came up from Iraq. He reportedly laid out the political strategy for the movement in the new era. The assembled Sadrists took the opportunity to discuss political strategies and coalitions for the coming election period in light of the failure of the Shia United Iraqi Alliance. Sadr reportedly spoke of "continued resistance" to occupation, promising not to use weapons against Iraqi soldiers but to continue all forms of resistance. His spokesman also said that he promised to return soon to Iraq.

I've long since despaired of trying to understand the Sadrists, so I've got a lot more questions than answers about his sudden re-emergence. What does his public appearance portend for the role of the Sadrists in Iraqi politics in the coming period? Is this a bid for prominence in the upcoming national elections? How would a Sadrist political revival affect the escalating tension between Maliki and his Shia rivals such as ISCI? Or is this about security, whether the U.S. withdrawal plan or the recent uptick in attacks on Shia targets? Does Sadr's choice of Turkey as the place to re-emerge send any message about the movement's approach to the ever-hotter Kurdish issue? A million and one questions...

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ABU SILAWA

9:50 PM ET

May 4, 2009

Sadr in Turkey

The Sadrists I think become a little less inscrutable when you consider their political inexperience, their own internal diversity, and their basic dilemma -- how to remain relevant when there is no longer such public demand for their forte (community self-help, vigilantism, and expressing opposition to the occupiers, who are now headed out) but considerable demand for what they're demonstrably not very good at providing (state services).

The Sadrists have always most comfortable in the role of an opposition movement, and their main foray into actual ministry-running in 2005-2006 was sort of a bust. They're pretty good at capitalizing on discontent, but don't seem to have much idea of what they want to do with their political capital, at least at the national level.

Re Turkey, the Sadrists supposedly have a strong power base among the Shia who moved to Kirkuk during the Arabization, and Sadr might be trying to position himself to take the lead in any Baghdad-KRG conflict. Maybe he wants to build up his ties with the more Ankara-oriented Turcoman groups. This does not necessarily mean that he's making a bid for power, however -- just trying to stay relevant.

COURTNEYME109

4:10 AM ET

May 5, 2009

Day Tripper

Deliberate Coalition and Iraqi military operations, and Iraqi political maneuvers, have severed the political, military, and social strands of the Sadr Movement, which no longer co-exist in the same entity and likely will not recombine in 2009.

"After a series of additional political and military setbacks, it had become
evident that Sadr had lost his ability to use the militia to strengthen his
political position. Accordingly, Sadr sought to strengthen his control over the
movement by enhancing his religious credentials.

"In late 2007, Sadr announced that he would be pursuing religious studies in Iran with the hope of becoming an ayatollah."

For a while there - Mookie was just like Mahdi!

Both disappeared and promised to return one day