Guest post by F. Gregory Gause, writing in from Kuwait City.
My quick read of Kuwait's elections yesterday is that they are indeed a big event in Kuwaiti history but the third round of national voting in three years will not resolve the country's deeper political crisis.
The headline, and deservedly so, is the victory of four women candidates in
the election. It was a great achievement for each one, history making. Dr.Ma'suma al-Mubarak was the top vote getter in the first district. Dr. Asil al-Awadi was the second ranking vote getter in the 3rd district. Dr. Rola al-Dashti won in the third district as well, despite the fact that it is an overwhelmingly Sunni district and Dr. Rola is from a Shi'i family. Dr. Salwa al-Jassar finished in the 10th spot in the 2nd district, where very few observers thought she had a good chance to win. So this is a big event in Kuwaiti history.
But there are other take-aways as well. The Muslim Brotherhood (Islamic
Constitutional Movement, HADAS is the Arabic acronym) dropped, by my count, to only one member of parliament from three in the previous parliament. The Salafi Islamic Grouping dropped from 5 members to 2 members. This does not mean that Islamist sentiment is on the wane in Kuwait, I think. Many independent Islamists did well, and in the areas where tribal tickets dominate the voting (4th and 5th districts), many of the winners have Islamist orientations. Liberals did better than in the recent past, powered by the women candidates (all of whom can be classified, more or less, as liberals). But, overall, Islamists still outnumber more
liberal members of the parliament by quite a bit.
I think that an interesting thing to note is the decline of organized political groups -- we see the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafi Grouping losing seats, while the independent Islamists did fine. We see the Democratic Forum (al-Minbar al-Dimuqrati) endorsing only three candidates -- two incumbents, who won, but their most outspoken member, their symbolic leader, Abdallah al-Nibari, lost. [UPDATE: The Democratic Forum (al-minbar
al-dimuqrati) actually did worse than I originally thought. Of its three
candidates, only one won. Not only did Abdallah al-Nibari lose, but
incumbent parliamentarian Muhammad al-Abd al-Jadir of the Minbar also
lost. So the Minbar is down to one member.] The other major liberal group, the National Democratic Alliance (al-tahalluf al-watani al-dimuqrati) did not endorse any candidates this time around. Candidates closely associated with it, like Dr. Asil al-Awadi and Abd al-Rahman al-Anjari, chose to run as independents, not on a "party list." This is an indicator, it seems
to me. The good Islamist politicians (like Walid al-Tabtaba'i and
Faysal al-Mislim and Adil al-Sar'awi) and the smart liberal politicians run as independents. It is worth asking why Kuwaiti voters seem to shun organized political groups. I don't have a good answer, but it should give pause to those in Kuwait who argue that Kuwait needs a formal political party law as
necessary step toward more democratic politics. (Political parties are
still formally illegal here.)
One headline from the election that is a bit deceiving is that Shi'a nearly doubled their representation from 5 to 9 members. That is true, but a look at the story behind the numbers tells us this is not necessarily an increase in sectarian identity. There were two Shi'a tickets put forward in the 1st district, which is about 50% Shi'a in terms of voters. One was the more "ideological" ticket, including incumbent parliamentarians who got in hot water for attending a memorial service for Imad Mughniyya a few years ago. The other was less ideological, based on the Shirazi movement. Only two of the four on the "ideological" ticket won, with one incumbent legislator on the ticket (Ahmad Lari) losing his seat. Only one of the two on the Shirazi ticket won -- incumbent Salih Ashur. As among Sunnis, it is independents who did well: incumbents Sayyid Hussein al-Qallaf (who dedicated his victory to the Amir and the prime minister, which gives you some idea where he is coming from politically these days) and Dr. Hassan al-Jawhar (another member of Kuwait University's political science department) both were re-elected. Two of the new Shi'a parliamentarians are women -- Dr. Ma'suma and Dr. Rola -- neither of whom ran on a sectarian ticket or platform. So Shi'a representation is now closer to equitable, given that Shi'a are
probably about 20% of the citizen population. But I do not read the
results as an assertion of a particular "Shi'i" political line or ideology.
Something that won't make the international headlines but is very noteworthy here in Kuwait: the parliamentarians who spearheaded the challenges
to the government in the last parliament have almost all been
re-elected (the Muslim Brotherhood being the exception here -- see above about organized groups). The names will only mean something to those interested in real Kuwaiti inside baseball: Ahmad al-Sadoun, Musallim al-Barak, Faysal al-Mislim. Two candidates held in jail by the government for awhile because of their incendiary remarks, Khalid al-Tahus and Dayf Allah Buramia, were also both elected. (I doubt that they will not be disposed to give the government any breaks.) The last parliament was dissolved because these MP's called for confidence votes on the Prime Minister. My guess is that they will not be shy about doing that again in this parliament, though they might give the new government a longer honeymoon than the last one had.
Which brings me (finally) to my bottom line -- the "political crisis" (as Kuwaitis like to call it) will not be solved by this election. The "crisis" is three elections in the last three years, the 6th government about to be formed in less than four years, and a sense that Kuwait cannot take any big decisions because of the stand-off between the government and the parliament. The key to the political stasis is the unwillingness of the Al Sabah family to permit senior family members, including the Prime Minister, to face confidence votes in the parliament. Rather than do that, the government resigns and, sometimes, parliament is dissolved. This is not because the last Prime Minister, Shaykh Nasir al-Muhammad, could not get majority support in the parliament. He probably could have had 35 votes (out of the 50) at least if the confidence motions (called "istijwab" here --- a "demand for an answer" in Arabic that involves addressing specific questions/charges to a minister and then having a vote of confidence) had been allowed to go to a vote. I think it is an unwillingness on the part of senior members of the family to tolerate such a precedent being set. (There is also quite a bit of speculation about rivalries and divisions among the Al Sabah as provoking, from behind the scenes, these confidence motions. A number of candidates mentioned this specifically during the campaign, calling on the ruling family to close their ranks and solve their divisions.) Unless the new Prime Minister, be it Shaykh Nasir al-Muhammad or another member of the family, is willing to play parliamentary politics, face confidence motions and put together coalitions to defeat them, we will probably have a replay of the political crises that have led to the past three elections.