Is it a 'pullback' when there are 35 - 50,000 US troops and *132,610* mercenaries staying in-theater? http://trunc.it/m9bt

Is it a 'pullback' when the US says it's not barred from using mine-resistant armored vehicles during daytime in Iraqi cities after Wednesday, July 1 2009... The so-called 'withdrawal' deadline"? http://trunc.it/n0fx

"Unfortunately, the reality is more amorphous, if not deliberately confusing, like much of Obama’s foreign policy and war strategy these days." http://trunc.it/mppz

"Amorphous", in context, is just fancy nomenclature for "weasel words". The kind of verbiage anyone who is literate and reads the Western media sees daily.

Here's some VERY recent ones regarding the coup in Honduras (Now totally diplomatically isolated EXCEPT for the US of course): "In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the last senior member of the administration to visit Honduras, just three weeks ago, said that the United States was working toward “full restoration of democratic order (emphasis on 'Weasel words' mine) in Honduras.”

She said that the situation in Honduras “has evolved into a coup.” But when pressed by a reporter, she refused to say explicitly that the United States was demanding that Mr. Zelaya be returned to power,"

Courtesy of the NYTimes: http://trunc.it/mq5i

The whole world is REALLY watching, my Aardvarkian friend, and they ARE NOT liking what they're seeing in Iraq, Afghanistan, OR Latin America.

"Resolution from the OAS Diplomatically Isolates Honduran Leaders" http://trunc.it/ncs8

is another day.

'Tomorrow' is thrown about as if the day after my birthday finds me a whole year older. The military redeployment of tens of thousands out of Baghdad has been planned for months, and in execution for weeks.

Please give us the latest dope on the Withdrawal/SoFA referendum. Has it been delayed and put on the Jan. 2010 parliament ballot, as some have reported?

On the google search level, I'm not seeing anything more recent than 6/16. The Withdrawal/SoFA is the legal basis/shield for US lethal force in Iraq. That's not nuthin.

http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=63314
Referendum on SOFA could boot U.S. from Iraq in 2010

http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/Iraq-News/1-33344-100-million-dollars-for-SOFA-referendum.html

Tuesday, June 16, 2009 08:23 GMT

Cabinet spokesman Ali Al Dabbagh affirmed that the government allocated almost 100 million dollar to hold a referendum on the Status of Forces Agreement. Al Dabbagh noted that the government called on Parliament to delay the referendum while head of the Independent High Electoral Commission said the IHEC is ready to conduct the referendum 60 days after passing the law to Parliament.

June 30 is an important date for Iraq to get back more of its sovereignty, but it is more symbolic than anything else. Americans will still be with Iraqi units as advisors, out in the provinces as reconstruction teams, and in Iraq’s ministries. Iraq has far more problems than the Americans anyway. Iraq’s elites are caught up in an on going power struggle that could lead to either a democratic tradition of ruling and opposition parties, or lead to autocratic rule. The dispute between Arabs and Kurds is also heating up, which could threaten the unity of the country. Because of these problems, the economy, services, and refugees are largely being ignored. The economy is still a mess, services do not meet demand, and only about 5% of Iraq’s refugees have returned. Corruption is still rampant. It’s a shame that Iraqis still face these problems after three wars, international sanctions, and the ending of Saddam’s dictatorship.

None of the Iraqi leaders want this referendum so it's not going to happen. The cabinet put aside some money but that means nothing because parliament needs to assign the money and pass a bill to legalize the vote, and then the Election Commission says it will take 2 months more to set up the vote. The speaker of parliament has rejected at least one proposed bill to do this saying he's going to wait on one from Maliki's office instead, and that's not coming. For more see: http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2009/06/dont-expect-vote-on-sofa-anytime-soon.html

The only thing the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party got out of the SOFA was s stipulation that there would be a referendum held in July 09 on it. Iraq is not a country ruled by law. The parliament added the referendum to appease the Sunnis, but then will forget about it. They do this all the time. Ex: Article 140 of the constitution said there should've been a referendum on the fate of Kirkuk back on Dec. 31, 2007. Nothing happened. The SOFA will go on like it is right now.

wasn't held. But just because no one was fired for failing to produce an election, that doesn't mean nothing happened when it was kicked down the road another cycle.

A functioning democratic system requires willingness to abide a losing outcome as a condition of participation. An election supposedly determining whether Kirkuk is absorbed into Barzani's autocratic semi-state fails the test of being a democratic event. Neither Barzani nor Iraqi Arabs nor Turkmen/Turkey would accept the result, without a test of arms and intimidation. Nor does the issue of eretz kurdistan borders stop at the Kirkuk parrot's beak. My guess is that the battle for Kirkuk is being fought in Mosul right now.

Are you Iraq born, Mr. Motown67 ? Beyond curiosity, the question highlights that I don't have skin in the kurd border issue. A referendum that fans a broader war is not just an exercise in popular rule of law. Re-fighting the Anfal won't make things right for victims of the next round.

Not Iraq. I was using the failure to carry through with the Kirkuk referendum as an example that Iraq is not a country ruled by law. The provision in the SOFA agreement to have a vote on it, was simply a way to appease the Iraqi Islamic Party and get the law passed. There appears to be no real commitment by the leadership in parliament or Maliki to have the actual vote. Again, Iraq passes laws all the time which are never followed.

After inciting regional rebellion by Shiites and Kurds against Sunni Saddam Hussein’s regime by imposing no-fly zones under Clinton administration, US can do nothing but watch helplessly as US-installed Shiite regime in Iraq unifies Iraq. Maliki regime has seen at close quarters how West manipulates opponents of regimes that US does not like i.e. recent Iranian elections. Maliki definitely had that in mind when he told Vice President Biden to butt out in no uncertain terms.

US want Maliki government to truly create a harmonious government looking after the interests of all Iraqis, not just Shiites but Sunnis and Kurds as well. But Maliki government is NOT going to oblige US anymore than Saddam government did. It won’t be long after US troops depart in June, 2010 that Shiites first will unite with Sunnis to suppress Kurds and then Shiites will suppress Sunnis. Bloodbaths similar to those under Saddam will repeat until Shiites establish their supremacy with the help of Iran if need be and US won’t be able to do anything about it.

I went through my notes to find articles supporting my points. Here's what I got:

Domergue, Jeremy and Cochrane, Marisa, “Balancing Maliki,” Insitute for Understanding War, June 2009
- Iraqi Accordance Front claimed SOFA gave too much power to Maliki
- Included Political Reform Document to SOFA vote
- Called for power sharing in government and security forces and a July 09 referendum
- Backed by Iraqi National List, Fadhila and Kurdsitan Alliance
- Maliki needed as much support as possible for SOFA because Sistani said that it needed
to be backed by the Iraqi people
- Gave into demands for the Political Reform Document as a result
- Was passed on 11/27/08 by parliament
- SOFA was binding Political Reform Document was not

Ashton, Adam and Fadel, Leila, “Iraqi cabinet Okays U.S. troop withdraw, Parliament could scuttle,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/16/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “IAF will not support pact – al-Dulaimi,” 11/17/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Security deal to pass 5 stages before approval,” 11/17/08
Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Sunni Arab support key to US-Iraq security deal,” Associated Press, 11/25/08
Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Iraq Shiites, Kurds meet Sunni demand on US pact,” Associated Press, 11/26/08
- These are all articles that say it was the Islamic Party/Accordance Front that were pushing for a referendum and power sharing to be included in SOFA negotiations

Rubin, Alissa, Robertson, Campbell and Farrell, Stephen, “Iraqi Parliament Approves U.S. Security Pact,” New York Times, 11/27/08
- Article about passing of SOFA in parliament, says Sunnis got their referendum and reconciliation bill passed