How will Arabs judge Obama's Gitmo policy?

Tue, 06/30/2009 - 8:27am

 Yesterday afternoon, I joined a small number of al-Qaeda experts at the Department of Justice for a long meeting with President Obama's Detention Policy Task Force. I don't envy their job of trying to figure out how to untangle the myriad political, legal, and security issues which the Bush administration dumped in their lap. Under the house rules, I won't discuss any of the actual deliberations of the task force meetings, but I am free to offer some of my own thoughts on the matter.

 I'm not a lawyer, and I can't speak about the perplexing legal issues surrounding this debate. But I do have some thoughts on the impact of Obama's choices on Guantanamo and detention policy on his wider strategy for the Middle East. How Guantanamo policy affects al-Qaeda's propaganda, mainstream Muslim opinion, and assessments of Obama's credibility may not be the most important considerations for the policy, but they certainly should factor in to the decision. If Obama gets the decision right, it could have a major positive effect in responding to the most persistent ongoing Arab critique of his administration -- that it has not matched its words with deeds. And if he gets it wrong, it could have a devastating symbolic effect on his credibility in the region far beyond its objective significance.

 I wouldn't pose the question here in terms of al-Qaeda itself. I don't think that his decision will have much effect one way or the other on al-Qaeda as an organization, its views of the U.S., or its strategy. It will continue to use Guantanamo as a feature of its propaganda and rhetoric no matter what Obama decides. The real question is whether those arguments gain traction beyond the tiny (albeit dangerous) salafi-jihadist core and help al-Qaeda to regain credibility and support with parts of the Arab and Muslim mainstream (which, as I've argued elsewhere, it has largely lost over the last year or two).

Who is the relevant public? The broad mainstream of Arabs and Muslims, who are generally hostile to U.S. foreign policy and suspicious of American motives, but are tentatively hopeful that Obama will change it in a positive direction. This broad middle has little sympathy with Al-Qaeda’s salafi-jihadist agenda, but shares much of its critique of U.S. foreign policy. It tends to watch al-Jazeera and to identify with its framing of core Arab issues (especially during moments of crisis), supports the idea of resistance (muqawima) but is outraged about terrorism (especially where there are Muslim victims), backed Hezbollah in 2006, suffered over Gaza in 2009, and came to be convinced during the Bush years that the U.S. was waging a war with Islam.

 Guantanamo has for many long years been a key symbolic node in that shared narrative. While the U.S. debate usually focuses on the "worst of the worst", the Arab discourse generally focuses on people viewed as innocent and unjustly detained -- such as the al-Jazeera cameraman Sami al-Hajj. This epitomized in their eyes all that was wrong with Bush's war on terror. It helps that Guantanamo can now be portrayed as the stuff of the past, a sin to be redeemed. But this in turn plays into one of the most prominent themes in current Arab political discourse: that Obama's attractive words have not yet been matched by deeds, and that he hasn't really changed anything significant about U.S. policy.

 And that credibility issue is really the key which the policy review needs to keep in mind. For all their hope, and all the buzz around the Cairo speech, this Arab mainstream remains deeply skeptical that Obama will actually be able to deliver on his promised change. Popular Arab media will feature intense and skeptical scrutiny of every American move, will leap on every report in the American media, every hint of backtracking or hypocrisy. The two most prominent focal points for this scrutiny are the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Guantanamo --- and U.S. credibility will be especially hurt by new information which fits into this narrative of Obama offering words but not deeds. This places a very high premium on establishing credibility through deeds.

 The policy needs to be clear and bold to have the desired impact. The Arab public will not carefully assess the details of a particular plan. Instead, they will form impressions based on a fairly crude binary judgment: is Obama keeping his promise or not? Artful attempts to slice the problem with carefully calibrated dodges will likely fail. The skepticism is so high that anything other than a crystal clear closure of Guantanamo will register on the wrong side of that binary. And because of the symbolic prominence of the Guantanamo issue, and the high priority Obama himself has given it in his outreach to the Muslim world, failure there will have serious spill-over effects for credibility on all other issues in the region.

 The plan, no matter how well-conceived, will not speak for itself. The U.S. needs to not only select a policy which is clear and robust enough to defy hostile spin, but also have an aggressive, ongoing, strategic communications campaign ready to go on day one explaining the policy. This campaign should use it as a lever to respond to the “words/deeds” critique and to establish credibility. The images of a joyful release of many of the detainees -- combined with the prosecution of the genuine al-Qaeda bad guys like KSM -- would offer a powerful graphic demonstration of Obama's commitment to make meaningful distinctions between the real extremists and the rest. Ideally, it would result in al-Jazeera programs and editorials by influential authors to the effect of "we didn't believe that Obama would actually deliver, but he did" --- which would have positive externalities across a wide range of issues.

 Like I said above, the impact on the Arab and Muslim arenas may not be the most important part of the decision about detention policy. Legal or security or ethical issues may weigh more heavily. But the decision will have a significant impact on these strategic issues whether or not the administration prioritizes them. I hope they get it right.



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Tired

I'm tired of reading about how we (the US) needs to placate and please foriegn actors, especially the 'muslim world'. I sincerely doubt that in the Arab/Muslim world there are articles like this asking 'how can we get the US to understand us better?', 'how can we please the US?', or 'how are we viewed in the US and how can we help our relations?' Mr. Lynch, you are a scholar who delves deep into Arab media, do you find these stories? If not, why? Is the US really the only one at fault? Does Gitmo exists only because of the United States?

Gitmo is an albatross...

it serves only our mortal enemies and the Republicans. Get it off our necks and out of a town once run by a Medal of Honor winner (Buckley) and an honorable service, the Navy.

the new morality?

Instead, they will form impressions based on a fairly crude binary judgment: is Obama keeping his promise or not?

Since when is expecting someone to keep a promise "crude".

Obama ran as a leader and all we're getting is a politician.

An albatross? Only to those

An albatross? Only to those that suscribe to the liberal media as the source for our values. Gitmo is a model for incarceration. The legal issues are complicated because the detainees are not subject to the Geneva Convention. They are thugs, hired guns, criminals. The issue with the detainees can be solved by prosecution. If found guilty, there is no need to move them, they already have the best accomodations convicted criminals can have. If found not guilty we need to repatriate them and pay a stipend for their wrongful incorporation.

Geneva Conventions

The Supreme Court ruled that Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions does apply to detainees, in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld on June 29, 2006, contrary to the claim of the Bush Administration.

This article simply requires, in brief, humane treatment and sentences passed in accordance with judicial guarantees which are recognized as "indispensable by civilized peoples."

Apparently even adherence to that basic minimum standard was too much for the Bush Administration.

Guantanamo

Not to beat a dead horse here -- especially since I broadly agree with Lynch's characterization of Guantanamo as a foreign policy problem -- but his description of the "broad middle" is less than complete.

In predominantly Muslim countries there is opposition to terrorism when it claims Muslim victims, but in Arab countries what counts are Arab victims, or even Arab Sunni Muslim victims. Terrorism against non-Arab (Darfur) or non-Sunni Arab (Iraq) Muslims appears to be viewed much less negatively; it can and has been characterized as legitimate resistance and defended against "Western imperialist" criticism. Pakistan presents an additional complication, with some Pashtun groups simultaneously promoting terrorism in Afghanistan and opposing it in their own neighborhoods, while the government has subsidized and fought the same groups using the same terrorist tactics against the same targets for years, often with substantial public support.

These aspects of how terrorism is viewed in various Muslim countries may define some limits to how much any Obama policy with respect to Guantanamo can achieve. It is likely that in some Muslim countries -- some of the Arab countries plus Pakistan -- the objection to Guantanamo goes well beyond the detention of people not involved in terrorism of any kind. President Obama has been right to be very clear about not intending to release detainees considered dangerous, but this intention by itself represents a departure from the evident thinking among some Arabs (though among smaller numbers of non-Arab Muslims), for whom what Guantanamo represents is not unlawful detention of non-terrorists but unjust detention of fighters for legitimate Arab causes.

Obama is bound to be accused of not matching words with deeds no matter what he does about Guantanamo. This is not an argument for not trying to get this right, or for not seeking opportunities to exploit fissures in Arab opinion or, crucially, between Arab opinion and opinion in non-Arab Muslim countries. It is only an observation as to the thankless nature of the task he has inherited.

In predominantly Muslim

In predominantly Muslim countries there is opposition to terrorism when it claims Muslim victims, but in Arab countries what counts are Arab victims, or even Arab Sunni Muslim victims. Terrorism against non-Arab (Darfur) or non-Sunni Arab (Iraq) Muslims appears to be viewed much less negatively; it can and has been characterized as legitimate resistance and defended against "Western imperialist" criticism.

Sure. And americans consider 9/11 the worst atrocity ever, consider terrorist incidents in france as bad but not particularly important, and readily finance terrorists in iran because we officially think it's a good thing to destabilise the iranian government.

So what?

President's Promise Re Justice

Arabs/Muslims are not the only people hoping President Obama's deeds will match his words. Surely the Americans who elected him also have that expectation, as do people in many other countries.

At least three Canadian citizens have been victimized by ant-terrorism measures. These include a Guantanamo detainee held for six years since the age of 15 without being found guilty of anything, a man seeking reparations for having been inexplicably abducted by American officials and sent to Syria where he was tortured, and a man held for years in a Sudanese jail based on American information but yet to be charged with, or cleared of, anything. A judge described the latter case as closely resembling Kafka's "The Trial".

The Canadian government has appeared reluctant to do anything to upset the American government with respect to such cases. For this reason, many Canadians, and people in other Western countries with similar situations, are looking to President Obama and hoping he will keep his promise with respect to the application of the most basic principles of justice. Perhaps unlike many Arabs/Muslims, we have confidence that he will.

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Yesterday, the Democrats.org blog featured an excerpt from a story we received from Kristine Reger, a life-long Wisconsinite and mother of three who attended President Obama’s Health Care Town Hall in Green Bay. Today, we asked Kristine to write a guest post to share her full story:
Hi everyone. I submitted my health care story to Organizing for America online, and they’ve asked me to write a guest blog about my experience. Here's what I can tell you:
Though I'm a lifelong Democrat, my husband and I raised our three kids in a mostly Republican suburb. For years and years, I kind of rolled over and skirted political conversations with my friends and neighbors. I didn’t want to engage in debate.

Then last fall, after more than 20 years, I finally decided to have the courage of my convictions. Barack Obama inspired me to get involved. I wasn’t happy with the direction of our country and I thought to myself: enough is enough. I spent lots of time researching the issues and learning about then-Senator Obama’s positions. Eventually, I figured out that I could make a real difference in my own network of family and friends by reaching out to people through email and responding to all the emails going around that I knew weren’t true. You know what I learned? My friends are still my friends. People have started coming to me to understand what’s going on; they rely on me to tell them the truth.

Since the election, President Obama has inspired me to stay involved. I think he’s so sensible and so right on so many of the issues I care about. I woke up at 5am yesterday to attend the Health Care Town Hall in Green Bay. It was fascinating – great questions, so much excitement and not an inch of space in the room.

Unfortunately my health care story is not unique, it’s typical. My husband and his business partner run a small machine shop their fathers’ founded in the 1950s. They’ve always provided their employees with single and family coverage, but as premiums have become more expensive, they’ve been forced to modify the kind of coverage they provide. Between this year and last, costs have increased 8 percent. In order to continue to provide health insurance, they’ve had to switch to a high deducible plan. Last year, they paid $132,000 in health care costs for a plan with a $2,500 deductible. Those costs are cutting into their profits and eating into our family income. Truth be told, the policy isn’t all bad – there are actually some great things about it. For example, all our preventative care, including physicals, mammograms and colonoscopies, are covered regardless of whether or not we’ve reached our deductible. That focus on preventative care is great - its something a reform plan should build on. But when you add up all the costs of our plan, we have to spend an awful lot to receive any of the benefits.

It’s true that we’re in the midst of a terrible recession. But I don't think maintaining the status quo when it comes to health care is an option. I keep thinking if small businesses like my husband’s are the life blood of our economy, how will it ever bounce back when small business owners can’t eek out a profit because health care costs are so high?

Everyone I know cares about this issue – my Republican friends care just as much as my Democratic ones. We’re all living with the consequences of a broken system. Though we might not all agree on the exact solution, we all agree something has to be done. If people see a part of themselves in my story, and are inspired to get involved, then maybe we’ll be able to make the people in Washington pay attention to us and get something done.

Kristine Reger is a life-long Wisconsinite and mother of three. She worked as a high school English teacher before staying at home to raise her children for 19 years. She is currently a self-employed travel agent. Kristine attended President Obama’s Health Care Town Hall in Green Bay, WI on Thursday.

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