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Palestinian unity talks -- a real chance
Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal announced today in Cairo that a Palestinian national unity document will be signed in October. The final form of the reconciliation document is to be presented and signed some time next month. It will reportedly include Presidential and Parliamentary elections in June 2010. I've not yet seen any word on whether this includes a deal for the release of Galid Shalit, the Israeli soldier presumably held by Hamas in Gaza. The Egyptian-brokered talks have been going on for many months now, with little progress or even much reason to expect progress. Is there any reason to think that a deal is really about to be reached?
Well, maybe. Meshaal's announcement follows a noticable change in the tenor of Hamas statements about the Egyptian role, and the level of Hamas representation in this round of talks was significant (not only Meshaal and other Damascus-based leaders, but also a number of key Gaza-based Hamas leaders). Meshaal has been sending a blizzard of public messages about his willingness to explore some form of long-term ceasefire with Israel if a deal is reached based on the 1967 borders. Fatah is feeling somewhat more self-confident after the non-disaster in Bethlehem's conference. Most of the Arab world, and most Palestinians, desperately want some kind of a deal to restore the links between the West Bank and Gaza. And no Israeli-Palestinian final status deal which doesn't include Gaza will have any hope of being a true end of conflict agreement.
On the other hand, there's little reason to think that the deeper conflict is any closer to resolution. At the same time as he praised the Egyptian initiative, Meshaal called on the Palestinian Authority to cease its security cooperation with Israel -- reflecting deep suspicions about the role of General Dayton's trained forces and the fears of a civil war amidst the escalating campaigns of arrests and repression by each against partisans of the other, and control over the PLO itself. The nature of 'resistance' has hardly been resolved, nor has ultimate control over the PLO itself.
In short, I'll still believe that reconciliation has been achieved when I see it.
The U.S. should absolutely support such a Palestinian reconciliation. There's no way that it can achieve its desired two-state solution without Gaza, and without convincing Hamas to avoid playing the spoiler. And more: the U.S. should support this with support for massive humanitarian aid into Gaza and the revision of the blockade to make it worthwhile. his is a potentially important moment -- and not to be missed.
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On the other hand, there's
He probably wants a united front so that when elections come around, they can (hopefully) win them again, then use it as an excuse to take control over the greater Palestinian Authority apparatus in both the West Bank and Gaza.
That's be more violent, but possibly more prone to at least temporary solutions. After all, Israel reached a kind of unofficial truce with Hamas after the December War, and if they were fighting them in the West Bank it would have the same type of incentive (plus it might make the "Resistance" junkies among the Palestinians and greater Arab intellectual community slightly more hesitant about beating their chests to "resistance").
Palestinian reconciliation.
One doesn't wish to talk like a party pooper, or a spoil sport about the Palestinian reconciliation attempts, especially that, one doesn't know how the final reconciliation document drafted by Egypt will look like. But for the life of me, I don't understand first of all, how two negations [Hamas and the PNA] will be able to form a nation?, and second, why would Egypt follow the same Oslo Palestinian-Israeli mehtod of negotiations; which postponed all the important issues to unspecified dates, thus creating more problems than it solved, excluding the handshakes of course, on the Palestinian-Palestinian reconciliation talks, which seem to exclude also, all important issues between Hamas and the PNA?; an example that comes to my mind for instance; is the re-organisation of the Palestinian security forces, including those whose training was supervised by General Dayton I think. Is this a Marxian case, in which history repeats itself first as a tragedy, and then as a farce?.
khairi janbek.paris/france
Musharaf smells weakness?
Dr. Lynch, what do you make of President Pervez Musharaf's comments that President Obama's pondering phase is making America look weak? How can this impression be corrected through public diplomacy to the Arab and Muslim world?
It could also be another
It could also be another effort for Hamas to get the international advantage over Israel. I notice the message shown at home and abroad can be very different.
More rediculous.
I wonder if the Palestinian internal political situation can get more rediculous; I wouldn't be surprised really, but how much more than, having a resigned government in Gaza, a caretaker one in the west bank, a President whose mandate has expired; ie past his sell by date, all playing make belief roles in a non-existent state and in a virtual reality?. The Egyptians have put pressures on Hamas and the Saudis have put pressures on the PNA to a reach a deal which is supposed to look slightly less rediculous. PS//, it is rumoured today, once again that, Gilad Shalit is closer than ever to be released.
khairi janbek.paris/france
When I read this, my first
When I read this, my first thought is that there would need to be a "peace offering" of sorts.
It was very frowned on by Palestinians that Fatah put down protests against the Gaza invasion. I half wondered Fatah's human right's filing was not that "offering". So, I admit, I was discouraged by its withdrawal, as I see it as a sign that Fatah is still more committed to the West than to its people and the unity that they need.
Excellent, thought evoking articles.
re-When I read
I think both, the pressures of Sec. Clinton and the submission of Mr. Abbas to the deferement of the Goldstone Report, go together in order to keep the pilot light of the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis alive. Actually Mr. Netanyahu had already linked the possibility of return to the peace negotiations, to the deferement of the Human Rights Council discussions.
I guess Hamas' criticism is expected under the circumstances, after it had secured the release of the Palestinian prisoners in Israel, and expects the release of more in the anticipated deal of exchanging the captured Israeli soldier Shalit, it has to present itself as the alternative to the PNA; and indeed this may turn out to be the case if the awaited Palestinian elections mid-next year, go its way.
But despite its political stance and crticisms of the PNA, Hamas seems to accept implictly the return to the peace negotiations, especially if the leaks about the Palestinian reconciliation document; drafted by Egypt are correct, restoring the authority of the PNA over Gaza in addition to the west bank
khairi janbek.paris/france
with who?
I think that the missing link is who are you negotiating with and what kind of peace will you get?
Fatah has lost its mandate and legitimacy in many quarters. It represents few of the Palestinian peoples. In fact, it is seen by many to represent American interests and not its own. Getting a peace with the Palestinians through Abbas is functionally like picking one tribe to negotiate with then claiming you have a peace deal with all Palestinians. Unity is essential to the peace process, otherwise the other groups are likely to act to undermine the process.
The Center for Palestine Research and study was touting a 3% increase in support for Abbas. It still only put him at 53% of the people. Haniyeh definitely fell. But, I think what it bespeaks most is apathy towards both. Barghouti, still in jail, commands more of the public's support.
re-With who?
I don't think we should have any illusions that, Fateh has been and still is, the dominant group among all other Palestinian groups in the PLO since 1968. The PLO gained Arab recognition to be the sole representative of the Paletinian people in 1974, and subsequently gained the international recognition to represent the Palestinian people after Oslo. Of course Hamas, is not part of the PLO and sees itself as its replacement. Now, irrespective of whether Mr. Abbas acts in a dictatorial manner or not, he was elected by the Palestinian people in fair and transparent elections, as the president of the PNA. However, he may or may not keep his job in the elections of next year. That remains to be seen.
As your good self is well aware, the Palestinian territories are totally dependent on Arab and international financial as well as economic assistance. The dependence also on the Israeli economy cannot be underestimated. Therefore, if Mr. Marwan Barghouti from his cell; serving on terorism charges, or from outside it, can guarantee the flow of this aid and assistance to the territories, then one would say, whomever is at the helm of the PNA is really academic. Abu Mazen's asset is his ability to keep Arab and international aid and assistance coming.
In terms of Abu Mazen being veiwed as representing American interests, there is hardly any Arab or even any European leader whom hasn't and still is, being viewed by the people as representing US interests. In any case, the US is brokering the Palestinian-Israeli peace and training the Palestinian police.
The Palestinian reconciliation document drafted by Egypt, is supposed to be signed by all the Palestinian factions, around the 22nd. of this month. This is supposed to be a Palestinian unity document, and again, if the leaks about its content are correct [big IF], then it means, Hamas accepts the authority of the PNA over Gaza as well as the west bank, imlicitly recognising, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks.
khairi janbek.paris/france
what kind of peace.
Sorry Ms. Tess I presume, but I noticed the question of peace pretty late. Mr. Abbas knows very well the formula of Mr. Netanyahu : 1) No Jerusalem. 2) No right of return; except symbolic perhaps. 3) No removal of large settlements; and maybe a compensation of territories from behind the Green Line where there are Arab population concentrations. 4) No militarised Palestinian state. 5) Borders between the Israeli controlled Jordan Valley, and the variations on the route of the separation wall. And many thought in the region as well as outside, that my solution was unacceptable.
khairi janbek.paris/france