Posted By Marc Lynch Share

The Obama administration really should get some credit for its quiet, effective diplomacy on Iran. Surrounded by a hawkish commentariat and facing a muddled Iranian domestic situation, the Obama team has managed to formulate a policy which brought Iran to the diplomatic table facing an unusually united international front. And by resolutely staying out of Iranian domestic affairs, it managed to engage diplomatically without particularly strengthening or endorsing the Ahmadinejad government. It has also quietly continued its diplomatic outreach to Syria, with the unusual visit to Washington of the deputy Foreign Minister rather firmly squashing the wave of autopsies for America's Syria outreach. 

None of this guarantees success on any front, and there's a long way to go. But it's pretty notable that Obama inherited from the Bush hawks a strong, confident, rising Iran which is now backed into a diplomatic corner, regionally on the defensive, and domestically in crisis. 

Top administration officials such as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates have also done a good job of pushing back against the feverish attempts to depict an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear sites as not only possible but inevitable. The blizzard of such commentary has been striking indeed, with the presumable intent of normalizing an idea which was once seen as nigh-unthinkable.  Heck, sometimes I think that the goal is to get people wondering "hey, didn't Israel already do that?"  

From what I've heard from Israeli analysts and officials, they have decided that the lessons of the Lebanon and Gaza wars are really that massive force establishes deterrence and that the predicted harsh Arab reaction (uprisings against friendly regimes, severing of diplomatic relations) never happens.  If they genuinely believe that, it makes the odds that they might go for it against Iran considerably higher.   So the gentle reminders that a military strike is likely to have little long-term impact on the Iranian nuclear program, would badly damage American interests in the region (such as in Iraq, which are not necessarily the same as Israel's interests) and would not really serve Western interests are so important.  

 The public nature of the campaign to justify an Israeli strike against Iran could be a useful tactical weapon for American diplomats, the bad cop to help sweeten the pot for the Western good cops. But it can only be a useful tactical weapon if there exists sufficient trust between the Obama administration and the Israeli government that the latter would not go rogue and strike on its own.  We hear so much about how the Obama team needs to build trust with the Israelis to get progress on peace, but it runs both ways -- Netanyahu needs to do a lot more to build Obama's confidence that they are on the Iran strategy team. 

 

SWANIC

1:41 PM ET

October 5, 2009

I like what the

I like what the administration has been doing with Iran, but isn't the biggest reason for the unified international front the fact that it was just divulged that Iran has been running a massive reprocessing facility near Qom? That's what brought Russia and China on board, not US diplomatic efforts.

Also, Iran's domestic legitimacy crisis was completely fortuitous. I don't think anyone outside the administration would suggest that Obama had anything to do with that.

In my mind, those are the two biggest factors that have impacted Iranian relations and neither of them had anything to do with the U.S. or the rest of the world.

Of course, the U.S. is in a position to take advantage of those developments, but I'm pessimistic, even though I think the administration has been doing a good job on Iran.

 

HASS

5:11 PM ET

October 5, 2009

Facts are inconvenient

Iran was not running a "reprocessing plant" -- it was an enrichment plant, and it isn't even operational yet. Iran's disclosure was in accord to its safeguards agreement, and was not a "secret". In fact Iran's enrichment program was never a secret -- Iran announced plans to enrich uranium on national radio in 1983 and invited IAEA inspectors to see Iran's uranium mines in 1992 -- a decade before the so-called "exposure" of its enrichment program.

 

JANBEKSTER

6:16 PM ET

October 5, 2009

The Problem is not with Iran's Enrichment Programme,

after all Mr./Ms. hass, Iran is entitled to its own peaceful production and utilisation of nuclear power. One even remembers from the 1980s, that the mullahs issued a fatwa to prohibit the production of weapons of mass destruction in Iran.

The problem started with the United States National Intelligence Estimate, declaring that Iran had stopped the plans of producing nuclear weapons in 2003, but re-started the programme in 2007, adding that it had no further information on the subject. Iran could have and still can, dispell all the concerns of the US and international community, bu opening all its nuclear sites; and not hide any, to international inspection regularly, to show that its enrichment capacity is no further than that of producing energy, and at most, for medical purposes.

khairi janbek.paris/france

 

JANBEKSTER

3:57 PM ET

October 5, 2009

Wielding the Club of Israel.

One would say, President Obama is entitled to pat himslef on the back for the good job done and is being done with Iran.

When it comes to the US and Israel, I don't think that the we can talk in terms of trust, rather in terms of understanding perhaps. I say that because I am yet to see, a politician trusting another further than he/she can throw him/her. Just as Israel accepted conveniently to be the wielded club over the head of President AhmadiNejad, to strenghten the Washington administration's position vis a vis Tehran, as well as to serve its own purposes, Israel can be the wielded club over the head of Mr. AhmadiNejad also, to undermine the US position vis a vis the creation of a Palestinian state, and serving its own purposes.

In the absence of any other candidates; usually Gaza and Lebanon, to embarass the US and drag it into a war on its own side, Israel can actually still hit Iran, draw the USA into the conflict; assuming that Iran will actually retaliate against US bases and strategic interests in the region, and re-shuffle the peace agenda in the Middle East, if, President Obama presents Israel with Hobson's Choice regarding the creation of a Palestinian state that is contrary to the vision of the current Israeli government.

Of course, one doesn't know how the Israeli public percieves this possibility. I mean at times of national emergencies people tend to gather around their leaderships in a nationalistic fervour, but alternatively, the Israeli public may well be sensitive also, about valueing US-Israel good relations, above whether Mr. Netanyahu remains a prime minister or not.

khairi janbek.paris/france

 

ANTHONYXB

4:03 PM ET

October 5, 2009

My response is the same as

My response is the same as swanic's. It seems far too early to give credit or blame; in this case the credit is being given a bit over-eagerly. The Obama Administration was clearly caught flat-footed by Iran's election fiasco and its response was, at best, awkward. But it's also true that the diplomatic fall-out from that may be positive. The Qom facility also alters the diplomatic deck of cards, at least in the short-term, in a positive way. But the long-term fall-out from both issues is unclear, as the post notes. It's certainly too early for any bouquets to be awarded, but I agree that at a minimum Obama hasn't overplayed his hand toward Iran (one could imagine the Bush Administration's reacting in a counter-productive manner to the Iran election). Beyond that, we shall see....

 

MODERATEWINGER

4:30 PM ET

October 5, 2009

See what happens

When you talk to people instead of having them look down the barrel of a gun!!!

 

BRETT

8:36 PM ET

October 5, 2009

To be honest, the whole thing

To be honest, the whole thing "are they or aren't they going to strike" discussion strikes me as ridiculous, since the Israelis just don't have the capability to do such a strike without

A. Sending out a huge chunk of their air force on an uncertain bombing run to hit a wide target list using bunker-busters that may not be strong enough to destroy all the targets, all while trying to dodge Iranian anti-air systems (particularly those nasty SAMs the Russians have sold to them) and doing multiple in-air re-fuelings over Iraqi airspace without US permission,

AND/OR

B. Using nuclear weaponry.

I think the Israelis know this (they asked for permission to re-fuel over Iraqi airspace during Bush's Presidency, and were refused), and they're using the perception of the threat as a bargaining chip, even if they don't really have it.

 

JANBEKSTER

10:59 PM ET

October 5, 2009

Strike Capability

Of course your good self Mr. Brett, realises that there is another school of war, which states that Israel has actually the capability of striking Iran with long range missiles. Therefore, I don't hink it is a matter of lack of capabilities in this department, rather, a matter of whether Israel can take the reponse of the Iranians in the event of such an attack.

Iran has an unknown number of -Shihab 3- missiles with a range of 1500 Kms. They are working on -Shihab 4- with a range of 2000 Kms. And claim they are developing -Shihab 5- with the expected range of 3500 Kms. It is well known also, that with long range missiles, error is usually measured in Kilometers rather than meters, consequently, to compensate for the error, in the event of attack, Israel will have to use extremely devastating warheads, and Iran would be expected then also, to retaliate in kind. All in all not a very nice picture I think you'd agree.

khairi janbek.paris/france

 

BRETT

6:19 AM ET

October 6, 2009

Of course your good self Mr.

Of course your good self Mr. Brett, realises that there is another school of war, which states that Israel has actually the capability of striking Iran with long range missiles. Therefore, I don't hink it is a matter of lack of capabilities in this department, rather, a matter of whether Israel can take the reponse of the Iranians in the event of such an attack.

That's why I included "nukes" as an option. If they're willing to use nukes, then wiping out the sites is mostly a problem of accuracy, as you said.

Israel will have to use extremely devastating warheads, and Iran would be expected then also, to retaliate in kind.

What could the Iranians do? They have proxies, but the proxies aren't invulnerable or that powerful, and all the Iranians have on their own are some (inaccurate) missiles.

 

JANBEKSTER

9:18 AM ET

October 6, 2009

The capability

I didn't contradict your good self's statement Mr. Brett, rather wanted to say that the question is not that of capabilities, rather, if Israel strikes Iran it could do that with long-range missiles with conventional heads that are highly devastating.

One is no military expert, rather from general information, if such a war is provoked, it is likely also, that Iran would retaliate with conventional and highly devastating warheads. Given the inaccuracy of the long-range missiles, such a war will be a war of random and wanton destruction. Though Israel is capable of provoking such an attack, I am not sure it would want to invite a response in kind, knowing that Iran does have the same capability. Is it a matter of balance of terror?. Indeed for the time being, it looks like that.

khairi janbek.paris/france

 

NORWEGIAN SHOOTER

3:59 PM ET

October 6, 2009

Packers lose! Packers lose!

I don't see any cancers growing in the Viking locker room, but being 4-0 sure helps. Let's see where they are after November 1st. I can't wait.

 

Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

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