Posted By Marc Lynch Share

Since editors love nothing more than end of year lists, and it beats actually thinking about anything serious, I've put together a selection of professional sports-style awards for the Middle East during 2009. Just don't expect it to have much more value than all the other lists of its ilk! 

Comeback player of the year: Bashar al-Asad. It's been a surprisingly good year for the recalcitrant Syrian dictator. The Syrian economy is booming, the new Lebanese government reflects Syrian interests, international suitors are coming calling, and an American ambassador is reportedly on the way. It's a long way from the Cedar Revolution and the Hariri tribunal days of 2005, when many analysts thought his career was over.  

Rookie of the Year: Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish Prime Minister isn't exactly a first year leader, but he might as well be when it comes to Middle East diplomacy. In 2009 his personal popularity in the Middle East skyrocketed and Turkish diplomacy radically accelerated in the region. Erdogan's vocal support for the Palestinians and criticisms of Gaza played exceptionally well across the region, especially when he stormed off the stage in Davos as Amr Moussa sat by and watched bemusedly. Beneath the flash, though, Erdogan has engineered a creative and aggressive outreach to all of Turkey's neighbors -- to the East and West alike -- and has turned his country into a diplomatic powerhouse after decades of regional marginality.

Top Prospect: Salam al-Fayyad. It hasn't been a good year for the Palestinian Authority. Mahmoud Abbas has lost legitimacy, and is now happily ruling without electoral mandate, while the divisions between the West Bank and Gaza deepen and hopes for negotiations fade. But Fayyad has been something of a bright spot in an otherwise lost season, as he continues to plug away at his plans for institution building from below, revitalizing the West Bank economy, and cultivating positive Western media coverage. He is probably more popular in Washington than in the West Bank, probably has as many enemies in the PLO and Fatah as he does in Gaza, and a lot of people expect that he'll turn out to be one of those over-hyped top draft picks who never really puts up the numbers. But at least for now he's got the buzz.

Cy Young (pitcher of the year): Yusuf al-Qaradawi. While a number of prominent Islamist figures came out hard against al-Qaeda this year -- including the Saudi Salman Awdah, the Libyans, Dr. Fadl, and many others -- the intervention likely to have the most long-term impact remains Qaradawi's Fiqh al-Jihad. His careful defense of "resistance" (i.e. Hamas) and scathing denunciation of "a mad declaration of war on the entire world" (i.e. al-Qaeda) outlined a position with wide resonance across the region. He continues to be a barometer of a significant share of Arab public opinion. After years of medical problems and controversial stances, the fiery old shaykh showed he still has the stuff.

Executive of the Year: Shaykh Mohammad bin Rashid al-Maktoum. Say what you want: the ruler of Dubai has always done things big, and has Moneyball ambitions. Indoor ski slopes in the desert? You bet. Tiger Woods-branded golf course? Sure. World's tallest skyscraper, palm shaped artificial island? Whatever. So who's going to begrudge a total fiscal collapse as the outsized house of cards comes down hard and he has to run to Abu Dhabi to beg for help? Are we not entertained? Is that not why we are here?

Coach on the Hot Seat: Nuri al-Maliki. After surprising the critics with unexpected success last season (Basra, the SOFA, security improvements) and a good start to his sophomore campaign (provincial elections), the Iraqi Prime Minister had a rocky 2009 season. Spectacular terror attacks have chipped away at his claims to provide security, even if overall violence levels are down, and repeatedly pointing the finger at Syria and Baathists has proven unconvincing. The long political deadlock over the election law and persistent tensions between Baghdad and the KRG have cast a pall over the political process. And for all of that, grumbling over his centralization of power and allegedly autocratic style of governance continues. He has time to turn it around but, with Parliamentary elections scheduled for March 7 of next year, Maliki heads the list of regional politicians updating their resumes.

Fan Favorite:  Neda Soltan and the Iranian Green Revolutionaries.  They may not have won (at least not yet), but the courageous protests which swept Tehran after the fraudulent "victory" of Mahmoud Ahmedenejad captured the world's attention. Neda Soltan became the international symbol of the protests, a focal point for the brave and resourceful -- and seemingly largely uncoordinated -- efforts of thousands upon thousands of ordinary Iranians. It's too early to know whether they will become the Chicago Cubs of the Middle East (lovable losers who bring deep pain every year to their fans after raising their hopes) or the Boston Red Sox (who threw off a similar curse to finally win). But the game will never be the same.

Performer of the Year: Beyonce. You can sit down now, Kanye!

Defensive Player of the Year: Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli Prime Minister's ability to stand up to the United States on the issue of settlements threw American Middle East policy into the trash bin, harmed Obama's credibility across the Middle East and throughout the world, and may have squandered Israel's last chance to achieve a lasting peace with the Palestinians and the Arab world. But he successfully defended his positions, won considerable support from the Israeli public, and for whatever reason paid little to no costs of any kind with the United States.  

Offensive Player of the Year: Richard Goldstone. He certainly offended a lot of Israelis and Americans -- while galvanizing global criticism of Israel's behavior in the Gaza war. His devastating report -- badly misrepresented in the media -- opened up the real prospect of prosecution for Israeli officials abroad. The American decision to pressure Mahmoud Abbas to withdraw the report backfired badly, undermining the Palestinian leader's legitimacy and provoking a still-unresolved political crisis. Goldstone's report had an unexpectedly large impact on so many arenas that he's earned this award.

MVP:  Barack Obama. Love him or hate him, rally around his hopes for change or despair of his prospects, President Obama's new administration has defined the year in the Middle East. His masterful Cairo address and broad-based outreach to the Muslim world sought to turn the page on the Bush years. His attempts to push for Israeli-Palestinian peace and to engage Iran have run into deep trouble, but his efforts have driven the diplomatic agenda in the region. He has contributed to the marginalization of al Qaeda and has overseen a thus-far mostly effective drawdown from Iraq. Obama has inspired millions in the Middle East and opened up new windows of opportunity for the United States and for the region. More and more people across the region may be growing frustrated, disappointed with the limits on his ability to change track or to deliver on his promises -- but his hopes and failures, efforts to bring change and the resistance it has brought, make him the 2009 Most Valuable Player in Middle East Politics.

More pointless end of year lists coming soon! 

 
Facebook|Twitter|Reddit

SCUBASTEVESW

8:33 PM ET

December 17, 2009

Quit Beating Around the Bush

No more sugar coating - just tell us how you really feel about end of the year lists.

 

JACOB BLUES

11:21 PM ET

December 17, 2009

Looks like Peter King doesn't have to worry about his day job

"Just don't expect it to have much more value than all the other lists of its ilk! "

Well you got that much right.

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

6:49 AM ET

December 18, 2009

Assad is the most popular politician in the Arab World

Well, Dr. Lynch, you are absolutely right about the comeback player of the year. Bashar al-Assad has essentially transformed Syria overnight. Like you mentioned, the Syrian economy is finally starting to improve, thanks to some innovation that was previously overlooked during the elder Assad's thirty-year reign. Declining oil productivity has forced- and is continuing to force- the Syrian Government to address the natural-resource dependency that so many Arab regimes in the region take for granted. With the price of oil fluctuating, you would think Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States would follow the Syrian model.

Without a doubt, the greatest accomplishment of President Assad has been his political talent. Despite his government's horrible human-rights record, he has the United States and Saudi Arabia- two countries that have been historically ambivalent to Damascus- crawling to his doorstep. Regardless of which country we are talking about, Syria is more important than ever. The west is trying to convince Assad to limit his alliance with Iran, and the Islamic Republic is responding in much the same way. The question, of course, is whether Assad is talented enough to make the right decision.

And what about his popularity among Arabs as a collective? Thanks to Israel's debacle in Lebanon in the summer of 2006, Assad has been credited as one of the main players that brought about Israel's "defeat." For all of their ideological and religious differences, many Sunnis and Shias portray Assad as a primary defender of Arab rights. In fact, a recent poll within the Arab World concluded that Mr. Assad is currently the most popular politician in the Middle East...an amazing development considering the globe's persistent outcry over human rights abuses and his financial support for terrorist groups.

There is one more thing that could have contributed to Assad's current standing; internal security. Domestically, Assad's regime has been able to boast unity and security in an area that is frequently held hostage to violence and radicalism (a.k.a. Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and to some extent, Iran). Obviously, security comes at a price; Syria's intelligence service is known for its ruthless espionage, and crack-downs on political activists is a daily routine. But it is security nonetheless.

Do not be surprised if Assad gains even more stature in the coming year. With the Iranian nuclear program only increasing in significance and attention, Syria's position will be all the more crucial. My prediction is that the Syrian regime will probably remain silent, especially if a military-strike is in the works. But either way, I do not see how Syria could lose.

http://depetris.wordpress.com

 

JANBEKSTER

12:38 PM ET

December 18, 2009

Ba'ath Existential questions.

Ultimately I suppose, the success of Syria will be measured in the manner which the ruling Ba'ath party manages to face up to the existential questions which will emerge in the near future, and the reasons it can provide for maintaining its monopoly on power in the country.

The Ba'ath Party rests on the priciples of : Unity; meaning Arab unity in which Syria plays the cetral role, Socialism; state driven economy, and Freedom; from foreign domination and later on freedom from Israeli domination.

Up till now, Syria has managed to keep the fig leaf of its claim to be the centre of Arab unity, though this claim has been wearing thin for the Syrians and the Arabs in general for some time now. Then there is the question of Socialism, and the need for Syria to liberalise its economy in order to be integrated in the world economic systen through international agreements. In this context, Lebanon remains indispensable for Damascus, in order to use its business, economic, and financial institutions to allow for an outlet of economic liberalisation, while internal Syrian economic transformations remain on tight leash. There are still no legislations and proper infra-structres in the country that permit wholesale free enterprise outlook.

Some may suggest a Chinese model for Syria; of economic liberalisation mixed with political authoritarianism, and a relationship between Syria-Lebanon comaparable to the foremr relationship of China-Hong Kong, but Syria is no China, and there is the great challenge of peace with Israel.

On this last point; peace with Israel, one tends to find it difficult to believe, that it is in the interest of Syria to reach a peace agreement with Israel very soon, simply because this is the last bastion of Ba'ath domination of power in terns of a raison d'etre. Without, Socialism, unity of the Arab world, and finally a state of war with Israel, what is left of the Ba'ath slogan Unity, Socialism and Freedom?.

Any Syrian organised political force under the circumstances, can claim much more than those anachronistic slogans. Even the Ba'ath would not be able to claim them anymore.
khairi janbek.paris/france

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

6:16 PM ET

December 18, 2009

This is precisely why the

This is precisely why the Syrians will do everything in their power to sabotage a peace process with the Israelis. Traditional Arab opposition to Israeli policies- including its occupation of the West Bank and its annexation of the Golan Heights- continues to dominate the Islamic discourse. And to its credit, Syria has transformed itself into a primary party in the dispute; one that resonates with the Arab public. Like you said, a Syrian compromise with Israel on the Golan Heights is simply not a smart political (or strategic) move for Assad at this point. The status-quo is enormously beneficial for Damascus, and will remain so as long as the Palestinian/Arab struggle is exemplified.

I am not sure I agree with your statement about Syria's position within the "Arab unity" debate. You claim that the argument is "wearing thin" for the Syrians, but reality on the ground does not seem to hold this up. Bashar Assad has emerged as the most popular politician in the Arab world, thanks in large part to his connections with Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. We can not- and should not- discount the importance of Hezbollah's "victory" against Israel in 2006. It has not only strengthened Hezbollah's stature in Lebanon, but has given Assad a tremendous amount of positive P.R. Palestinians in particular are quite supportive of Assad, even though he follows the Shia-brand of Islam. Name another politician in the Islamic World that has this amount of clout.

http://depetris.wordpress.com

 

JANBEKSTER

10:50 PM ET

December 18, 2009

Regarding Syria.

My point is that, Syria cannot pursue peace with israel seriously, before it actually sets its own house in order and settle the economic question before anything else. It has its own internal imperatives to worry about, more than any strategic considerations related to Israel.

Now, Mr. Assad may be popular or otherwise with the Syrians and the Palestinians, but certainly not for his pursuit of Arab unity, a notion which has been dead a long time ago for all Arabs, and more so, since Mr. Assad is pursuing alliances with non-Arabs such as Turkey and Iran. Of course Syria has the right to seek its own alliances, but that has nothing to do with Arab unity.
khairi janbek.paris/france

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

2:28 AM ET

December 19, 2009

My whole point was Arab unity

I was not speaking about Arab unity per say. To the contrast, I was placing Arab unity within the context of Israel (I admit this is rather generic). There may be enormous differences between Sunnis and Shias in the Middle East; in fact, there are widespread incidents of violence between both groups. But when Israel is added to the equation, Arabs of all sects tend to unite against what they label as "Zionist" aggression on Muslim soil. Assad understands this, and he has transformed Arab discontent with the Israelis in his favor.

You are absolutely correct when you argue that Arabs are skeptical of Iranian motives. Iran's nuclear program is only the most recent example of this scenario. Generally (and I am trying to be as objective as possible), Persians and other non-Arabs in the region are usually viewed in a negative light...however accurate this may be. However, I am sure most Arabs would prefer a Syrian alliance with Iran and Turkey than a Syrian alliance with Israel.

In my own personal view, I am not so sure that Assad's partnership with Iran and Turkey is a major concern for Arabs in the Middle East. Call me crazy, but this is the same leader that continues to pour millions of dollars into the coffers of Arab militant organizations. It is hard to castigate a leader on his Arab credentials when he is one of the only figures providing Hezbollah and Hamas with tactical and logistical support.

It is actually ironic; Assad is the one man in the Middle East that can hold alliances with all sectors of the Islamic World; Sunni and Shia, Arab and Persian. Heck, even Lebanese Christians tend to follow his direction.

http://depetris.wordpress.com

 

JANBEKSTER

11:15 AM ET

December 19, 2009

Arab Unity?

Just to clarify what I am saying, and that is, Syria has the right to pursue its own startegic interests which it does, but I predict the regime will find it increasingly difficult in the future, to justify its monopoly on power without its three mainstay slogans.

On Arab unity there is no one single evidence that Syria is or has been pursuing this goal even sicne the 1970s, let alone now, and mind you in fairness, the regime has always been secular in its outlook. I gave the example of alliances with Turkey and Iran, not to indicate Arab worries, but rather, Syria's preference of close relations with non-Arab states over Arab states; something might strike one as peculiar for a state pursuing Arab unity in the manner of the Ba'ath slogan "A Single Arab World; With an Immortal Message".

By its support of some Palestinian factions, Syria is harming the concept of Palestinian unity let alone serving the interests of Arab unity, and why?, Iran's support of the same Palestinian factions is actually bringing closer the materialisation of Arab unity?.

As for the Lebanese Christians, they had always a checkered history of relationship with Syria. Some have always been the allies of the regime since the 1970s, and some have been its adversaries. Ultimately, let's remember that Syria and late President Assad snr. entered the Lebanese civil conflict, on the request of the Christians and on their side, against the Lebanese nationalist forces and the Palestinian groups.
khairi janbek.paris/france

 

ID.RICKY

6:00 PM ET

February 4, 2010

Bashar

It was back in the 2000 that he had got the power following the death of his father Hafiz al-Assad. During his tenure he has been through many incidents and had gathered a lot of critic for his performance as a ruler, many complained that he didn't have the killer instincts nor the charisma of a leader, he was also blamed for not processing maturity, experience, and self-confidence. Even with his lack luster tube notcher performance at the throne Syria's economy is growing at a very fast pace. Bashar after ruling for quite a time now has not yet been able to come in terms with the General's in the Army as they still see him as a kid at the throne and Bashar has remained the same young, raw, inexperienced, and insecure ruler, who has yet to prove he is capable of leading the country. The fact that Bashar has not yet won the trust of his people, and that his ability to govern Syria is still questioned by many. Hopefully he will learn soon.

 

JANBEKSTER

12:44 PM ET

December 18, 2009

Indeed Qaradawi.

Indeed Dr. Lynch, Qaradawi has still got the stuff. He can still run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
khairi janbek.paris/france

 

HONDAXL

2:54 PM ET

December 18, 2009

This is a fast food menu

This is a fast food menu news.

Underestimating people..
nobody'fool..

 

TAMMYYY

11:04 AM ET

December 21, 2009

People of the Year 2009

2009 has been an extremely crazy year. The deaths have been the worst things of the year though. There is even a magazine full of farewells to celebs who have passed away this year. My favorite things of the year have been when I met Cloris Leachman back in April, when I went to Florida for the 1st time in my life back in June 2009, and I got a few nice autographs from some of my favorite celebs through the mail .
http://ezinearticles.com/?Bowtrol-Colon-Cleanse-Review---Does-Bowtrol-Cleanse-Work?&id=2926555

 

BOBFAN

5:53 PM ET

January 27, 2010

personaly i would chose Nada

personaly i would chose Nada soltan as my "person of the year" who gave her life not in the pursuit of capital or saving the financial behemoths of Wall Street from their own self-inflicted greed, but rather for simple measures that we in the West take for granted every day.
Neda Soltan was not political. She did not vote in the Iranian presidential election on June 12. The young student was appalled, however, by the way that the regime shamelessly rigged the result and reinstalled Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ignoring the pleas of her family, she went with her music teacher eight days later to join a huge opposition demonstration in Tehran.
“Even if a bullet goes through my heart it’s not important,” she told Caspian Makan, her fiancé. “What we’re fighting for is more important. When it comes to taking our stolen rights back we should not hesitate. Everyone is responsible. Each person leaves a footprint in this world.”
This is why I too, even though her life was short and her contribution an accident, feel that Neha Soltan deserves to be known by us all; because her struggles and the ideals of the Green Revolution are our struggles.
Best regards - Car Leasing

 

HEALTH0052001

4:23 AM ET

February 3, 2010

I think Syria cannot pursue

I think Syria cannot pursue peace with israel seriously, before it actually sets its own house in order and settle the economic question before anything else.
You are absolutely correct when you argue that Arabs are skeptical of Iranian motives. Iran's nuclear program is only the most recent example of this scenario.
At last,I am not sure I agree with your statement about Syria's position within the "Arab unity" debate. You claim that the argument is "wearing thin" for the Syrians, but reality on the ground does not seem to hold this up.
Regards,
Mroido
www.qa02.com

 

Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

Read More