Friday, March 26, 2010 - 3:45 PM

If ever there were a moment for an Arab Summit to bring together the major Arab players to formulate a coherent, practical strategy, this would seem to be it. The Obama administration and the Netanyahu government in Israel continue to lock horns, creating an opening for Arab diplomacy -- either to reaffirm or to repudiate the long-standing Arab Peace Initiative. The grinding Palestinian division between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and Fatah remains unresolved, with Egyptian mediation no closer than ever to success. The question of Iran's nuclear program poses challenges and opportunities which could offer an opening to creative diplomacy. Unfortunately, this Arab Summit just happens to be scheduled for Libya... which more or less guarantees a higher degree of inter-Arab division, and makes it cruelly unlikely that any productive moves will be taken.
Libya's long-standing dictator Moammar Qaddafi has been a central player in disrupting an impressive number of previous Arab summits. Last year, after his public feud with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah dominated the Arab Summit in Doha (he declared himself "the dean of the Arab rulers, the king of kings of Africa and the imam of Muslims"), I wondered if we had seen the end of Arab summits. Well, technically no, since they still roll around like clockwork. But functionally, perhaps so.
The attendance at the upcoming summit is notably poor. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia doesn't seem to find it a pressing item of business, after being so rudely interrupted by Qaddafi in Doha. Egypt's Hosni Mubarak is very, very not sick and doing wonderfully (according to the Egyptian state media; the rumor mill still thinks he's dead), but isn't up to traveling to Libya, so the leader of the supposedly pivotal Arab state will miss his third consecutive Arab summit meeting. Several Gulf leaders, including Sultan Qabus of Oman and Sheikh Khalifa of the UAE have sent their regrets. Iraq will stay away after Qaddafi invited some Iraqi resistance figures. So will Lebanon. Mahmoud Abbas has threatened to boycott if Hamas is invited; at last report, he will come but plans to arrive fashionably late. Algeria's President Bouteflika apparently overcame illness to attend, but Morocco's King Mohammed VI has threatened to stay home if he does.
Many of these absences may have happened anyway -- but Qaddafi's unique legacy only exacerbates the problems and adds an extra layer of absurdist political theater. With so many leaders missing, few Arabs expect much from the Summit on any of the urgently pressing issues they face. I wouldn't expect moves towards serious Palestinian reconciliation, the articulation of a new strategy towards Iran, or the adoption of a significant new approach to Israeli-Palestinian peace. It's something of a tragedy that the Libyan distraction came at this particular historical juncture. It is in many ways more tragic that nobody really expected anything out of the Summit anyway. Perhaps we should just treat this like the opening and closing of the Winter Olympics: don't expect much, just sit back and wait for Qaddafi to provide some amusing YouTube moments.
AFP/Getty Images
It is not really an occasion for earth shattering decisions; indeed it has never been like that anyway, still, such meetings provided occasionally some rare opportunities for Arab leaders to iron out differences, and on other occasions; as put aptly by Marc Lynch, widen their diffrences. Nevertheless, the Arab streets still hope that, their leaders will at one point, reach the least level of minimum common agenda at one point.
khairi janbek.paris/france
It isn't a place for major decisions of how to handle the current issues of the world, nor does it have a great deal of power to enforce said decisions, but it is a generally a good indicator of what the Arab community sees as important and what they might work together on.
Muammer Gadaffi may be a thorn in the bosom of the Arab world but he can also talk sense as he did at the UN. His delivery is something of an acquired taste and many members left the chamber while others fell asleep. However, for what it is worth, here is a summary.
He argued for an investigation into the Iraq war. He said: "The Iraqi war was the mother of all evils. Why did we invade? This should be investigated. It was a violation of the U.N. charter, without any justification."
He said a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian crisis wasn't practical and called for an Arab democratic state without religious fanaticism. "Sharon and Arafat are over," he said, declaring that young Israelis and Palestinians want to live in peace together. "They want to live under one state," he said.
He talked about the lopsidedness of the United Nations, which gives five permanent members of the Security Council more power than the all the other nations that make up the UN. He said the Security Council should be a platform that “implemented the will of the General Assembly.” He said that either the body needed to be expanded to make it more representative or the veto power of the five permanent members should be abolished. He said that smaller countries were treated as "second class, despised" nations.
He said that the UN has not provided security for the world since its establishment but has rather provided the world with "terror and sanctions." “Sixty-five wars broke out after the establishment of the UN and the Security Council, and the victims are millions more than the victims of World War II.” He said. “Were these wars in the interest of all of us? No, they were in the interest of one country or three countries or four countries.”
He also said that another flaw with the United Nations is that many developing nations did not even exist as independent countries when the UN was formed, and the UN charter should be reformed to include these nations' needs and input.
The more these people get together, the better. Meanwhile the Arab and international experts who met in Bahrein on Sunday and proposed the establishment of a regional atomic energy body to include Iran and Iraq alongside the Arab monarchies might hold the solution to a host of intractable problems.
Actually the man is probably mentally ill and whatever babblings he emits, however partially sensical at the moment, cannot negate the fact that he is a hinderance to Libya and the so-called Arab Cause. His behavior is so erratic that it makes all of the Arabs look like clowns at least when they are gathered in one place. Logic would have it that his military men would remove him from power except that he his twisted psycho has managed to permeate every corner of Libyan society. Only time will solve the problem apparently.
Nevertheless, the summit agreed to provide 500 million dollars a year to bolster Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem; schools, commercial offices etc. That is an imaginative and sensible decision to come out of the meeting, is it not?
Inter-Arab chaos and discord is Israel's ultimate weapon. So long as the Arab states can't get it together, Israel will do pretty much whatever it chooses.
One would say it was logical of the Summit to continue sticking with the Arab peace Plan, especially at the time when the whole international community;including the USA, are against the Israeli policies of settlements in Jerusalem and the west bank.
However, the caveat adopted also, is the possibility of revising the Arab stand regarding the Peace Plan, if the Israeli government continues with its policies. But what are the alternatives?. If one has understood correctly, the Arab world will go to the Security Council for condemning the Israeli policies, as well as seek judgements from the international Courts against Israel. Regarding the first possibility, it depends by and large on the USA. Would the USA Veto such a condemnation?. Accroding to some news reports, Washington is mulling over the possibility of not vetoing such a resolution. But given the mid-term elections and the way Congress is adopting a pro-Israel stand, how realistic it would be, for the US not to veto such a possible resolution?. Of course as far as one is concerned, this is an ideal opportunity for the Obama administration, to enforce its own peace plan on both the Palestinians and Israelis, by using such an occasion in the Security Council. In terms of wishful thinking, indeed, if the US wants to enforce its own peace plan, it could endorse such a resolution even under chapter 6 or even 7.
However, it looks like the Washington administration, might be thinking under such circumstances, of the easy way out, by actually abstaining from voting, which will neither please the Arabs nor upset the Israelis; meaning going back to square one and making a mockery of all what the administration has being saying about its position regarding the question of settlements.
The Arab world may go then to the international courts. But unfortunately in this dimension, save for a moral victory, nothing much can be achieved because the role of such courts usually is seen as merely advisory; if we remember the rulings on the Wall of Separation which still stands and prospers.
I think the US stands a good chance now, to present its own peace plan and enforce it, before violence which is always superfitially under the surface spirals out of control soon.
As for Iran, well, the issue is very logical, I mean, how many Arab states are threatening Iran?. None. And how many Arab states feel thretened by Iran?. Many. It is logical to seel a dialogue with Iran, but at the same time, it is logical to ask also, is Iran willing to have a dialogue which considers the Arab countries' interests and fears?. I don't think dialogue would be a problem if Iran shows goodwill which is not forthcoming yet.
khairi janbek.paris/france
"Of course as far as one is concerned, this is an ideal opportunity for the Obama administration, to enforce its own peace plan on both the Palestinians and Israelis, by using such an occasion in the Security Council. "
The most comprehensive and realistic peace plan put up by the US was President Clinton's at the end of his term. One would think that Dennis Ross would have amended it by now to take into account developments since then, but such amendments would no doubt be at the margins.
I wonder just how clear Obama/US is being to Abbas and Fayaad about red lines Palestinians aren't ready to accept - ie right of return only to Palestine, jewish sovereignity over wailing wall? I think O should put forward his peace plan and then go to Israel and Palestine and sell it. That's what Clinton or Blair would do.
It's hard to see any peace plan that contains those two red lines getting support in the UNSC. But without them, there will never be two states. So the only chance imo is for Obama and Blair to jointly persuade the Palestinians and Israelis in an open and public way. Get the debate going, in other words.
Your good self may well be correct BB, there will always be Arab red lines, Israeli red lines, and Palestinian red lines, so long as the current thinking continues without introducing new ideas; or creative thinking about viable alternatives, in order to solve this most intractible problem.
I mean there were ideas explored before which can be re-visited; for example the making of the area of the Holy Sites in Jerusalem as a " Corpus Separatum" administered Jointly by Jordan-PNA and Israel, while leaving what I can call as the "real estate" of the city to be negotiated between the Palestinians and the Israelis on whom controls what area and which street. After all, the question of Holy Jerusalem is not a matter for Abu Mazen or his PNA to decide upon solely, because the matter is important for the world's Muslims in as much as it is important for Christians and Jews.
When it comes to the question of refugees, again this matter tends to be in the multi-lateral nature rather than, a bi-lateral issue between the PNA and Israel alone. Especially for Jordan and Lebanon, then for Egypt and Syria, the status of the Palestinian refugees is a critical matter. In this department, there are hardly any new ideas or creative thinking being introduced. What Mr. Abbas says or doesn't say, is not really important, and what Mr. Netanyahu rejects or accepts is just unimportant for the hosting countries of the Palestinian refugees, because they will reject any formula; the formula which stands now, of solving the problems of Abu Mazen and the Israeli government at their own expense. If the USA enforces its own peace plan; with the least possible damage to all parties, then perhaps something may start moving in the Middle East. I don't think either the Israelis or the Palestinians are any longer, capable of reaching any semlence of peace.
Up till now, the question of compensation for the Palestinian refugees as well as for the hosting countries of those refugees, is being mentioned in a very shy manner is some marginalised publications, or marginalised talk here and there, or by marginalised people. And since nothing on the ground is moving in this respect; or at least that I am aware of, I can only say that, creativity is still being marginalised regarding this conflict.
Of course these thoughts reflect my opinion which is not necessarily very informed currently.
khairi janbek.paris/france
The Shocking TRUTH of Terrorism in India!!
There isn't an iota of doubt as who is responsible for terrorism in India. It is India itself. Thats right India is busy engaging in terrorism on her own country so she can score brownie points against neighbor Pakistan.
All leading law enforcement agencies openly work for exiled underworld don Dawood Ibrahim - who supposedly is in Sonia
Gandhi's ( former PM's Widow) first circle of close friends.
So much so that even NDTV ( India's leading media house) is hand in glove as well. All senior police officials i.e. Director
General level staff are but employees of this vast underworld network that thrives openly in a lawless jungle state that is
India. And underworld don Dawood Ibrahim operates all of India through his right hand man Muthappa Rai.
And there's one man - an IIM Graduate ( India's Harvard) who is now being chased all over the country by this crime network
in a desperate bid to shut him up from blowing the whistle. And in the process have exposed the most unusually brilliant
psychological alternative means to operate in India. And is the reason why we haven't heard of any underworld story from
India in the past decade and a half. Read this ghastly truth of Terrorism in India on his blog
http://truthbottle.blogspot.com
And he needs your help to save himself and pronounce the whole truth to the world. His whole family has been killed, his job was removed and the gangsters along with Indian Police openly chase him everywhere he goes!
Sorry, because this only touches marginally on the subject, but there is talk now that, the US and China will reach a trade-of, whereby, the US will abstain in the case of vote condemning Israeli settlements policies, and China would abstain in the event of vote of sanctions against Iran. Personally I find it difficult to see how China, with its foreign policy based on businnes and economic interests, jeoperdising such essential ingredients of its thinking, for the sake of the Palestinians or anyone else for that matter.
khairi janbek.paris/france
As long as the Arabs cannot sit in the same table and resolve issues, it will work towards Israels advantage as the seeds of the discord can be advantageous.Gaffadi is a strange person-part terrorist and part statesman. It cannot be clear what his agendas are. - cloud
Hard to say what Qaddafi's true agendas are. He has always been enigmatic and questionable. Even his good actions have a wary element to them. I find it very hard to trust a group of people who can not agree on simple terms and nomenclature (Speaking of the Arab discord) The fact that Israel is taking a long term approach while the rest of the arab world maintains it's seeking long term efforts, but really taking out a short term loan creates a problem of extra interest and impact that will be due.
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
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