Posted By Marc Lynch Share

There's some hope that Iran will return to nuclear talks with the P5+1 in Geneva on Nov. 15, even if they probably will have more questions about the agenda as the deadline approaches before they formally RSVP. Those talks will hopefully become the basis for an ongoing diplomatic process, where a range of issues can be explored, alternative arrangements proposed, and confidence built. But it's a very bad sign that, according to the New York Times, the lack of progress in talks thus far has "prompted a discussion inside the White House about whether it would be helpful, or counterproductive, to have him [President Barack Obama] talk more openly about military options." That fits with Dennis Ross's remarks to AIPAC a few days ago: "But should Iran continue its defiance, despite its growing isolation and the damage to its economy, its leaders should listen carefully to President Obama who has said many times, "we are determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons." Here's an easy answer: they would be highly counterproductive, and downright dangerous. So let's move on from that discussion, shall we?

The idea of putting war talk on the table is presumably to increase the pressure on Iran to come to the table and make a deal. It won't likely accomplish that. Iran will quite reasonably refuse to bargain under the threat of military force, and will view U.S. offers under such conditions as manifestly insincere. It probably will not view the military threat as credible, given the realities of U.S. challenges and limitations. The war talk would swamp all other issues, make confidence building virtually impossible, and even further harden the divisions. What's more, war talk might very well undermine the international consensus on sanctions, the one accomplishment of which the administration boasts, since few of the countries which came on board for sanctions in defense of nonproliferation would have any stomach for another U.S. preventive war in the Middle East.

That's not the worst of it, though. The greatest danger of introducing open war talk by the administration is that it would represent the next step in the "ratcheting" -- which I've been warning of for months -- and pave the way either to a 1990's Iraq scenario or to an actual war. Once the military option is on the table, it never goes away. The only way to signal "toughness" in future encounters will be to somehow escalate beyond military threats -- i.e. to commit action, such as airstrikes or cruise missiles. And those would, by the consensus of virtually every serious analyst, be a catastrophe. If the United States isn't prepared to follow through on the threat --- and it really, really shouldn't be --- then it shouldn't make the threat. That would just either undermine credibility, or else give a hook for hawks to demand that actions live up to rhetoric. Dangerous either way.

If the administration is really having an internal debate about whether to put the military option openly on the table, I hope that they quickly and firmly resolve it in the negative. It would not increase U.S. bargaining leverage over Iran. It would undermine the international consensus on sanctions for which they have worked so hard. It would almost certainly kill any prospect for the meaningful diplomatic process which is so badly needed. And it would represent the next step in the seemingly inexorable ratcheting process towards an unnecessary and counterproductive war. This would be yet another of those painfully predictable victories of narrowly-conceived tactics over realistic strategy. It may offer momentary satisfaction to U.S. domestic hawks and earn a few fleeting moments of praise, but at the expense of real U.S. strategic interests. Let's not go there. 

ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:IRAN
 

JAYDEE001

6:43 PM ET

October 28, 2010

If we keep talking about it,

If we keep talking about it, war is likely.

Our failed Iraqi adventure, our protracted and as yet unsuccessful occupation of Afghanistan, and the growing conflict with Pakistan over its shelter and nurture of the terrorists we oppose in Afghanistan are not enough for the militarists among us. They wish to have us enter still another conflict with a country that will make Saddam's Iraq and the Taliban's Afghanistan look like the weak sisters they really were before we chose to invade and occupy them, and touched off insurgencies we still cannot control.

Just as surely as they lied us into Iraq, the neocons would love to convince us that Iran represents a greater threat than it really does. Other than verbal missiles aimed at Israel, what has Iran done to warrant our starting another conflict with international Islam? Is there any concrete proof that Iran is developing nuclear weapons (remember the WMD's in Iraq)? If Iran does develop nuclear weapons, would that justify military action on our part? If so, why not bomb N Korea which clearly does have such weapons? Pakistan? (they have them too, and their status as an 'ally' is highly questionable). What do we say if we bomb them and the result is an even more hostile Muslim world, an Iran unified finally under the guidance of its Mullahs? What if we initiate a war in the middle east which we have neither the resources nor the international support to prosecute? Oops?

A US attack on Iran would be one of the greatest military and strategic blunders in the modern history of the US. The right wing supporters of US interventionism and those who believe in the right of the US to take any military action it deems necessary, is a real threat to US national security. That these people have infiltrated Washington think tanks and the US Congress is cause for concern about our future as a republic. Those who favor aggression against Iran have been working overtime to find (or fabricate) a convincing case for a US attack against the Islamic Republic. Without a concrete and compelling objective for a direct military assault, covert actions, political isolation and sanctions) are the only available US policy alternatives for Iran. That won't satisfy the neocons, and it certainly won't make the US arms industry happy.

A war with Iran would make the strategic blunder of the Iraq invasion and occupation look small by comparison.

As for Israel, if they choose to launch a preemptive military action against Iran, I vote we quote Tonto, who reportedly said, "What you mean 'We', Kemo sabe?"

 

ANTIMKO

6:44 PM ET

October 28, 2010

neocons expecting Obama defeat

so they can ratchet up pressure for an Iran war, in George Friedsman's words:

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2010/10/26/us_midterm_elections_obama_and_iran_99246.html

"I am arguing the following. First, Obama will be paralyzed on domestic policies by this election. He can craft a re-election campaign blaming the Republicans for gridlock. This has its advantages and disadvantages; the Republicans, charging that he refused to adjust to the electorate's wishes, can blame him for the gridlock. It can go either way. The other option for Obama is to look for triumph in foreign policy where he has a weak hand. The only obvious way to achieve success that would have a positive effect on the U.S. strategic position is to attack Iran. Such an attack would have substantial advantages and very real dangers. It could change the dynamics of the Middle East and it could be a military failure.

I am not claiming that Obama will decide to do this based on politics, although no U.S. president has ever engaged in foreign involvement without political considerations, nor should he. I am saying that, at this moment in history, given the domestic gridlock that appears to be in the offing, a shift to a foreign policy emphasis makes sense, Obama needs to be seen as an effective commander in chief and Iran is the logical target."

Or in Eric Cantors words:

http://www.lobelog.com/jta-gop-congress-means-flurry-of-calls-for-greater-confrontation-with-iran/

[GOP house minority whip Eric] Cantor, in his interview with JTA, emphasized that Obama must make it clear that a military option is on the table.

The republicans and newly elected AIPAC owned GOP winners of this election will make it even harder for Obama to not keep the war talk quiet.

 

LOGICAL123

9:38 PM ET

October 28, 2010

There is no hope for negotiations with ridiculous Obama proposal

It is very unlikely that there will be any negotiations with Iran in November as, according to the New York Times, the US is completely ignoring Iran's conditions on the talks and is preparing a ridiculous set of its own demands on Iran. Obama and his advisors such as Dennis Ross are unbelievably simple-minded and believe that dealing with a country like Iran is like playing a game. The problem is that Iran is a much better chess player.

The utterly childish demands of Obama on Iran, when it is offering absolutely nothing in return are just unbelievable. Talk of war is not going to go anywhere either since no matter how much they ratchet up the propaganda no one except the brainwashed American public will believe it. With the EU economies in total disaster, no other country other than Israel will join the US. Besides, with the dire state of the US economy and the prospective defeat in Afghanistan, no successful military action can be predicted. With the price of oil potentially going to $200 per barrel and a few US Navy ships being sunk in the Persian Gulf, the end of the US "empire" will happen much sooner than one would expect. So, the likelihood is that nothing will happen. Like the 50-year long sanctions on Cuba and the 60-year long Israeli-Palestinian dispute, Iran will be another piece of evidence for the total emasculation of the US as a world power.

 

LYDIA23

12:58 AM ET

October 29, 2010

Stop Giving Iran attention

I do believe that If war is consistently being brought up then it could possibly happen. I agree with Lynch on being quiet about war because we're just adding to the drama and attention that Iran wants. The U.S. is making this more of an issue then it needs to be. I understand that the U.S. is taking precautions to this but it's going to be escalated to a war that is really not necessary. The fact that they are already debating about getting the military involved already is ridiculous. I really don't think anything is going to happen. It'll be a waste of time and money.

 

ZORRO

11:09 AM ET

October 29, 2010

"another U.S. preventive war"?

Exactly what did the war on Iraq prevent? The failure to re-elect the sitting president?

War is inevitable. Israel and the neocons will continue to paint the US into a smaller and smaller corner until it is triggered by some minor event.

 

FORLORNEHOPE

12:38 PM ET

October 29, 2010

Just wait

If people are worried about Obama doing something stupid, just wait till you elect President Palin!

 

TAMAAL

1:22 AM ET

October 31, 2010

U.S. Interference

has left seemingly insoluble oroblems in the Korean peninsula, Iraq and now more seems destined for Afghanistan.

What are they trying to do? Totally destabilise Eurasia so they can maintain an iron grip on their oh-so-precious oil?

 

GABERDIYE

5:19 PM ET

November 23, 2010

K?saca HCG Nedir ? HCG

K?saca HCG Nedir ?

HCG Damla Amerika’da Dr.Simeons taraf?ndan bulunan bir formülün bitkisel kar???ma gelmi? halidir. HCG Zayiflama Kilo kontrolüne yard?mc? ürün olarak sat?lmaktad?r. Bunun yan?nda vücut direncinizi koruyarak gün içerisinde yemek yemeseniz bile enerjinizde destek sa?layan yan etkisiz bir formül içerir. Klinik olarak bir çok testten ba?ar?l? sonuçlar ile geçen HCG Zay?flama Damlas? Amerika'da ad?ndan s?kça söz ettirmektedir. Bu durumun bir çok nedenlerinden bir tanesi ise di?er ürünler gibi vücudunuzun dengesini bozmadan, metabolizman?z?n h?z?n? kontrol alt?na almadan size etkisini göstermesidir. Bu sayede bo? yere metabolizman?z?n yorulmas?n? engellemi? oluyorsunuz. Bu durum di?er birçok üründen HCG Damlay? farkl? k?lmaktad?r.hcgdamla Damla olmas?n?n etkisi ile birlikte tükürük bezlerinizden vücudunuza kar??arak k?sa zamanda etkisini göstermektedir. Bu sayede vücudunuza ve sindirim organlar?n?za herhangi bir zarar vermemektedir. ??te bu yüzden Amerika'da bu konuda ilk tercih edilen ürünler aras?na girmi?tir.

HCG ilk zamanlar ç?kt???nda i?ne olarak sat??? yap?lmaktayd?. Bu ?ekilde hem günde Birkaç kez vücudunuza i?ne vurmak zorunda kald???n?z gibi tonlarca para harcaman?z gerekmekteydi. De?i?tirilen ve daha da güçlenen formülü ile damla haline dönü?türülen HCG Damla hem kullan?m? hemde etkisi ile çok ba?ar?l? olmay? haketti. Bu nedenlerin birle?mesi ile birlikte dünya üzerinde etkili yöntem olarak yerini almay? ba?ard?.

?nsanlar?n tercih s?ralamas?nda ilk s?ralarda tercih etti?i hCG Damla i?te bu nedenlerden dolay? di?er ürünlerden kendini ayr? tutulmas?na neden olmu?tur.

 

Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

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