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Posted By Marc Lynch
Thursday, February 10, 2011 - 10:12 PM
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It's hard to exaggerate how bad Hosni Mubarak's speech today was for Egypt. In the extended runup to his remarks, every sign indicated that he planned to announce his resignation: the military's announcement that it had taken control, the shift in state television coverage, a steady stream of leaks about the speech. With the whole world watching, Mubarak instead offered a meandering, confused speech promising vague Constitutional changes and defiance of foreign pressure. He offered a vaguely worded delegation of power to Vice President Omar Suleiman, long after everyone in Egypt had stopped listening. It is virtually impossible to conceive of a more poorly conceived or executed speech.
Omar Suleiman's televised address which followed made things even worse, if that's possible, telling the people to go home and blaming al-Jazeera for the problems. It solidified the already deep distrust of his role among most of the opposition and of the protestors, and tied his fate to that of Mubarak. Even potentially positive ideas in their speeches, such as Constitutional amendments, were completely drowned out by their contemptuous treatment of popular demands. Things could get ugly tonight --- and if things don't explode now, then the crowds tomorrow will be absolutely massive. Whatever happens, for better or for worse, the prospects of an orderly, negotiated transition led by Omar Suleiman have just plummeted sharply.
I don't think anyone really knows how things will break in the next 12-36 hours. It seems pretty clear that most people, from the Obama administration to Egyptian government and opposition leaders, expected Mubarak to announce his departure tonight -- and that they had good reasons to believe that. That turned out to be wrong. As I just mentioned on the BBC, I don't think anybody knows what's going on inside Mubarak's head right now, though he certainly seems out of touch with what is really going on. I suspect that his decision may have changed from earlier in the day, and that people inside the Egyptian military and regime are themselves scrambling to figure out their next move. If the military has any plans to step in this would be a good time -- especially after the military's communique #1 seemed to suggest that it was breaking in the other direction.
Obama doesn't have a lot of great options right now. Its policy of steadily mounting private and public pressure to force Mubarak to leave, and for his successor to begin a meaningful transition to real democratic change, seems to have almost worked. But for now seems to have foundered on Mubarak's obstinance. The administration, which is conferring even as I wrote this, can't be silent in the face of Mubarak and Suleiman's disastrous decision. It needs to continue to pound on its message that it demands that a real transition begin immediately, and to do whatever it can to make that happen now... even if its leverage remains limited. It should express its sharp disappointment with what it heard today, and continue to push the military to avoid using violence in the tense hours to come. Mubarak's speech today, with its frequent references to foreign pressure, poses a direct challenge to Obama (and also suggests how much pressure he was in fact receiving). Those who are suggesting that Obama wanted Mubarak to stay are nuts. Now it's time to double down on the push for an orderly transition to real democracy before it's too late --- and that is now.
UPDATE, 9:30pm: The Cable has posted the full text of President Obama's statement following the Mubarak speech. It is a strong statement: "The Egyptian government must put forward a credible, concrete and unequivocal path toward genuine democracy, and they have not yet seized that opportunity. " The calls to restrain violence and listen to the voice of the Egyptian people are also important. Let's hope that the message gets through before things get (more) out of control.
This has to be one of the most mind-blowing things I've seen in my adult life.
I literally said aloud, "Wait...WHAT?" when I saw the news come across.
I keep seeing a flag in Tahir square. It's a blue flag with a white flower? sun? gear? in the middle. Whose flag is that?
OK Mark, so what do you think they're going to say in the mosque
tomorrow morning? How does Egypt's clergy respond on a Friday to the people? And, does that even matter.
After his last speech, my neighborhood mosque was all talk about "foreign conspiracies." But it depends on the mosque, I guess, and preachers are among the branches of the regime now peeling off. And while it matters for some, it still won't prevent an explosion tomorrow if the army doesn't intervene, which it might tonight. Look for Bayan #2 from the military.
(Also, Marc, don't underestimate how stupid some people can be. We've seen the best of Egyptians in the last couple weeks, but no country, no people is perfect. Where some see a 30-year president and see a dictator, others, particularly farmers, truckers, and retirees, see a lifetime of public service, devotion to the country, and a determination to ensure an orderly transition and save the country from chaos. And some respond well to the nationalism - the I will die in Egypt, I will not take orders from Obama. I fear we're seeing the end of this little golden moment of unity, opportunity, and hope.)
"Even if its leverage remains limited" - what?
"Even if its leverage remains limited"? The US gives $1.3B worth of aid per year to the Egyptian military, which is by far the most powerful institution in Egypt. Please explain how this does not constitute enormous leverage. Willingness to apply the lever is a different matter.
You want to risk losing the Egyptian military? They're happy to do business with Russia or China.
I'm honestly not sure what I would advise for the military aid. The public message is easier. If anyone reading this talks to the White House, can you tell them the public message should be "We support the Egyptian people and hope for a better future in Egypt," full stop? Resist the temptation to be more specific! It backfires. You lost all credibility in Egypt, with the protesters and the Mubarakistas alike, long ago, before this started. And you flubbed it when this started. So say something nice and stay out of the way.
you mean the leverage gone with the wind?
While his speech all but said "we don't need no stinkin' U.S. aid,"
turns out that was also factual:
'Saudi Arabia: We'll support Egypt if US cuts aid' Feb. 10
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=207647
original here if you have a subscription:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article2905628.ece
$1.3 billion annually since 1979
This figure isn't a recent thing either, Egypt has been recieving $1.3 billion annually since 1979 as part of US support for Israel - along with $3 billion a year in direct foreign aid to Israel. Egypt and Israel got a secure border, the US pays for it. I think Hosni Mubarak has maybe got used to the Aid and therefore doesn't see is as possible leverage. Just the thoughts of a virtual receptionist.
@Gruseom... $1.3 billion is chump change in international politics... it's not leverage...And Israel knows exactly where that money goes... and turns a blind eye to keep the peace... the Israelis are just as nervous as all the Arab states in the region... and the West... and Russia and China... nobody likes not knowing where the dominoes are going to fall....
where we have an internet embargo and hear about this, after walking on clouds on the way to work. I was shocked and deflated, and I'm a Bostonian. I can only imagine the outrage there in Tahrir.
But my real surprise was this morning, hearing the rumors. I'm hearing that, outside of Tahrir Square, protesters have been individually picked off by the police on an ongoing basis. In a BBC interview, an Egyptian human rights activist says the disappearances are occurring at about 6 dozen per week since the protest began.
Doesn't sound to me at all like the regime intends to release power, and maybe we should recognize this.
Mubarak was trying to bait the protestors into starting an uprising he could crush.
that is why the disinformation campaign leading up to his speech, and the vague and rambling character of his speech.
he wanted the 2 million people in the square to be furious with disappointment and create a crushable incident he could blame on islamic "radicals."
Hillary came right out and said Mubarak should stay for the "transition".
America is still propping the dictator.
But the Brothers are six steps ahead of America and Mubarak and the generals.
they stayed chill.
If you're trying to give a bad speech and you succeed...
Exactly. That speech was intentionally inflammatory. Nobody's that stupid. The messier this gets the better the bastard's chances. Rope-a-dope.
$1.3 billion just isn't what it used to be
Evening everyone,
Even if today turned out to be quite anticlimactic from Mubarak's regime, tomorrow promises to be quite newsworthy... That crowd seems to be the living embodiment of the phrase "fever pitch."
@ GRUSEOM,
From all the howling coming out of Cairo about "diktats," it would seem that the Obama administration is doing all it can from a leverage perspective, and the recent calls for freezing of that aid were enough to send rumors running throughout the world that King Abdullah of Saudi suffered a heart attack in the midst of giving Obama a royal earful.
Per DEBKA, an Israeli news site, King Abdullah, who considers Mubarak a close friend, warned President Obama on January 29th, one day after the cries for freezing the aid began to echo in the States, that Saudi would immediately intervene and fill the gap, dollar-for-dollar. So insofar as the financial leverage is concerned, aside from being a pretty blunt diplomatic tool to employ, it doesn't seem to be one in the U.S. arsenal at the moment. As the article pointed out, the Saudi monarchy has never directly threatened to oppose a U.S. policy. As in never. With the kingdom sitting pretty on over $400 billion in currency reserves, Mubarak would be good for another 266 years, and the U.S. could risk going from two major allies in the region to none...
Marc, please allow the text of your blog post and our comments to be resized.
Saudi money, Asian or Russian arms ...
Just sayin, the canal and the arab center of gravity have been couted by others before us. We're not indispensible, not that rich, and we carry a lot of baggage with the one country that receives even more aid than Egypt.
'Suleiman: The CIA's man in Cairo'
That's the featured profile on front page of Al Jazeera english, which goes with a 'friend and torturer' subcaption. Which raises the question, can Suleiman be CIA's key man (most agree he has been), but not a key player in the WH/DoState hopes to keep a lid on this week?
And if Suleiman remains our go-to guy in his new VP posting, how does he maintain or even pass on his spymaster position (both intel and operational) if the 'father of his children' is swept away, by army or popular revolt.
I can't find any reports of army movement, but on Fox at 8AM Cairo it looked like live shots of troops debarking from trucks, and moving in small columns on foot- at Tahrir? No troops deploying would probably be more alarming than the limited drills shown, but army deployments have to match the protester movements to ministries and state TV, or the situation can start cascading.
Where are the 100,000 police, plainclothes and NDP party auxiliaries? Their rice-bowl is at risk, and if not under tight control, they may again take small unit actions to provoke violence, employ under conditions far less contained than Tahrir. Where is the army?
An enormously provocative step!
The US administration have been wrongfooted by Mubarak. Both Obama and the CIA director had given the impression that they expected Mubarak to stand down, and Obama was quick to praise the protesters and align the US behind them.
Mubarak's response is an enormously provocative step. He is exploiting the indecisive and flip-flop policy of the administration who have shifted from solid support for Mubarak, to suggesting he should go now, to backing him again to remain in the office until September, and then Clinton reversing that hours later when she threw the US support behind Suleiman!
This is a big challenge for the US administration - his response shows he doesn't believe the US is in a position where it can influence in any decisive manner the events in Egypt, despite it being one of the biggest recipients of US military aid. The US administration must use this leverage to get Mubarak to recognise that he needs to leave now and back away from supporting Suleiman who has shown that he's not a credible figure.
Not sure what type of adhesive Mubarak is using to glue himself to that chair! Egypt is no longer his private estate and he must get out now to spare the lives of innocent people.
Obama's Anointed: ElBaradei. Islamic Brotherhood man? Both?
Obama Arrogance: World Class.
Boston Globe and NY Times: Obama anoints ElBaradei in Egypt.
ElBaradei speaks for Islamic Brotherhood. Obama: Good choice?
Barack, anyone trust you or your real advisors: George Soros, Van Jones, Bill Ayers, Tides Foundation, Apollo Alliance, “Center for American Progress"?
Mr. Obama go back to work for Soros directly.
Need a New USA President.
If President Obama were smart this would be a gift. First all he simply needs to do is frame the speech exactly as it is: the ramblings of an out of touch, confused old man no longer fit to remain in power.
Then simply cut the foreign aid to Egypt and keep the military aid in place. Mubarak and his family and inner circle use the foreign for themselves force them to try and take the money from the military or to get it from the Saudi's, either way it's a win-win. President Obama can say he did his best while still supporting Egypt and it's people and when Mubarak finally does go the US can finally be on the right side of this thing.
Egypt's military leaders have reasonably deduced that this is the end game for Mubarak and they should be who we are talking to.
How much Mubarak looks like Max the Miracle Worker if he dyed his hair.
"Have fun storming the castle."
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
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