Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 8:12 PM

While the American and international debate over Libya continues, the situation in Bahrain has just taken a sharp turn for the worse. A brutal crackdown on the protestors followed the controversial entry of security forces from Saudi Arabia and three other GCC states. Media access has been curtailed, with journalists finding it difficult to gain entry to the Kingdom (I was supposed to be in Bahrain right now myself, but elected not to try after several journalists let me know that they were being denied entry and several Embassies in Doha warned me off). The road to political compromise and meaningful reform -- which appeared to have been within reach only a few days ago -- now appears to be blocked, which places the long-term viability of the Bahraini regime in serious question.
The response of the Bahraini regime has implications far beyond the borders of the tiny island Kingdom -- not only because along with Libya it has turned the hopeful Arab uprisings into something uglier, but because it is unleashing a regionwide resurgence of sectarian Sunni-Shi'a animosity. Regional actors have enthusiastically bought in to the sectarian framing, with Saudi Arabia fanning the flames of sectarian hostility in defense of the Bahraini regime and leading Shia figures rising to the defense of the protestors. The tenor of Sunni-Shi'a relations across the region is suddenly worse than at any time since the frightening days following the spread of the viral video of Sadrists celebrating the execution of Saddam Hussein.
The sectarian framing in Bahrain is a deliberate regime strategy, not an obvious "reality." The Bahraini protest movement, which emerged out of years of online and offline activism and campaigns, explicitly rejected sectarianism and sought to emphasize instead calls for democratic reform and national unity. While a majority of the protestors were Shi'a, like the population of the Kingdom itself, they insisted firmly that they represented the discontent of both Sunnis and Shi'ites, and framed the events as part of the Arab uprisings seen from Tunisia to Libya. Their slogans were about democracy and human rights, not Shi'a particularism, and there is virtually no evidence to support the oft-repeated claim that their efforts were inspired or led by Iran.
The Bahraini regime responded not only with violent force, but also by encouraging a nasty sectarianism in order to divide the popular movement and to build domestic and regional support for a crackdown. Anti-Shi'a vituperation spread through the Bahraini public arena, including both broadcast media and increasingly divided social media networks. This sectarian framing also spread through the Arab media, particularly Saudi outlets. The sectarian frame resonated with the narratives laid in the dark days of the mid-2000s, when scenes of Iraqi civil war and Hezbollah's rise in Lebanon filled Arab television screens, pro-U.S. Arab leaders spread fears of a "Shi'a Crescent", and the Saudis encouraged anti-Shi'ism in order to build support for confronting Iranian influence.
Now, the struggle for democracy and human rights in Bahrain seems to have been fully consumed by this cynical sectarian framing, and the regional Saudi-Iranian cold war which had been largely left behind by the Arab uprisings has suddenly returned to center stage. The sending of Saudi and GCC security forces to Bahrain follows on similar political campaigns, while the regime's positions and sectarian framing have been backed across the Gulf media -- including al-Jazeera Arabic, which has barely covered Bahrain even as it has focused heavily on Libya, Egypt, and Yemen. Meanwhile, leading Shi'a political figures across the region, from Hassan Nasrallah to Ali Sistani, are rushing to the defense of the protestors. Both have the effect of reinforcing the sectarian frame and distracting from the calls for democratic change.
The United States may see the preservation of the Bahraini regime as essential to its strategic position, given its concerns about the Fifth Fleet and about losing a key part of its decades-long strategy of containing Iranian power. But what the Bahraini regime is doing to maintain power may badly hurt America's position as well. The harsh repression, immediately and publicly following the visit of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, suggests either American complicity or impotence. The refusal of serious reform probably makes the survival of the regime less rather than more likely. And finally, the sectarian framing of Bahrain has the potential to rebound upon other Arab states with significant Shi'a populations, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. It may also drive Iraq's leaders into a more assertively Shi'a and pro-Iranian stance, as Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his rivals seek to win popularity with Iraqi Shi'a who identify with their Bahraini counterparts. If the Obama administration hopes to define a new vision for the region, it needs to leave behind such outdated concepts and lines of division. Bahrain, sadly, with the help of its regional allies, has brought them back into fashion.
Flickr Creative Commons, March 4, 2011
I must disagree with this analysis. I don't think the current revolt needs any "framing" to see it as a sectarian issue. The issue has always been about the Sunni-Shiite split and likely always will be. Yes, the protests started out as pro-reform and pro-democracy, but due to the demographics of the country it is understood that "pro-democracy" in this case = pro-Shiite-leadership and marginalization of Sunni leadership. (This is not a bad thing, I'm just saying.) The sectarianism never left, from my experience. Sunnis mostly live in the more Western, more secular and more prosperous city of Riffa with the Shiites living in the poorer, more religious north. When they come into contact about any one of various "controversial issues", it usually doesn't work out well. I was once eating at a fast food place called Jasmis and two twentysomething guys were arguing in line. One had called the Gulf "the Arabian Gulf" and the other said that it's "the Persian Gulf" and anyone who said otherwise was a tool of Saudi Arabia. Then they got into a fistfight and were asked to leave. I wish I was kidding. This was not an uncommon experience during my time there.
So, yeah. Just my experience as a foreigner who once lived there. The issue is not quite as open-ended as you seem to think it is, and sectarianism is not nearly as outdated as you claim.
IS AMERICA SO HOPELESS?
Under Obama-Hillary regime, America is so hopeless it cannot even ask his stooges to hear her voice. A tiny Bahrain King, Saudi puppet and Libya's crook are ignoring our repeated plea and so many confidential messages. It is always better to be polite and low key but it is not good to be a whiner and beggar! America is still a super power; her voice must be respected. Or the super power must show her wings to these goons,who are tyrants, dictators and thugs.
With the overthrow of Sunni Saddam regime in Iraq, Iran got its second ally in Iraq in the middle east after Hezbollah in Lebanon. Bahrain will be the third Shi’a regime in overwhelmingly Sunni middle east. Slowly but steadily middle east is degenerating into a battle ground for Sunni versus Shi’a sectarian battleground.
U. S. has indeed opened up a Pandora’s box in the middle east with its 2003 Iraq invasion that Shiites to power.
I have to side with Avilla here, Marc. This is a sectarian issue at its core and it doesn't need to have only recently been framed as such by the Saudis. Bahraini Shias are protesting because of the opportunities and rights denied them _because_ they are Shia. The Saudis and Khalifas have indeed framed it as a sectarian problem -- for decades now.
The standing of Shias in Arab societies is a civil rights issue every bit as monumental as the standing of Blacks in American society; except it is in some sense more egregious with Shias having been marginalized, demonized, and too frequently killed in some areas for a millennium now. We miss that fact because of our irrational Iran obsession.
Bahrain, Democracy nsd Sectarianism
It is sad taht the closest allies to the U..S. in the region - The GCC nations -are the ones desperately fighting against democracy and freedom. The Arab kingdoms had better appreciate that there are definite limits to how far the U.S. can protect their excesses against their own people. Bahrain is a nation with just a single family lording it over the rest of the people. Sectarianism has nothing to do with this. Afterall., ALL the so called sunnis were pilgrims to Iran under the Shah, were the Phalavis ever sunnis? Face facts and negotiate in goodfaith otherwise your entire contraption will explode in your faces and there is very little the U.S. could do to protect this time around because who ever takes over will still sell oil to the U.S. and thats all the U.S. wants from you.
I agree 100% with your findings, I am Bahraini "Bahrani", Today Bahraini regime has declared that is nothing stopping them from announcing that they really an apartheid regime in 2011.
For me is nothing new, for my father and my mother and their parents and my village people this has been for everyday, by birth we been living in an apartheid.
The good thing nowadays the apartheid regime don't care anymore about the image outside as far as the plan is executed as per the drawing board. and the sectarian practice today actually fits the rulling family strategic plan to change the demographic chracteristics of the people of bahrain once and for all.
So the crack down and sectarian policy actually serve well in short goals and long strategic goals, and that is well known and documented in AlBandar Gate that leaked report by King adviser 6 years ago and every indcation in our daily life routine support such argument.
The American were here 6 years ago, when the Albandar report Leak Gate was first become a well known 100% to thw world, beyond any shread of doubt the Dictator of Bahrain "Crime Against Humanity" for me and my people that is only one of the millions evidences in the daily crime the dictator of bahrain in practicing against us, just to make it more clear that all of us in my village as males have been to jail in one time or another for political reason means above 90%, none of our families in my village who have no one memebr of his family living in exile for political reason, can not come back to Bahrain, at the moment all of us are not allowed to travel outside the country, and who ever outside country tried to come back denied entry in the Airport.
The American knows all of this all along, they know their freinds very well, The American embassoder himself changed residence from shia village " Magsha " in 1990's as around his residence the Bahrain i regime tear gases daily routine and he shifted his residency to more quite area of another shia village called "Saar", in which for the last 2 weeks for every nights the smell in His rented villa at Saar area is all tear gases and as i live about 1 mile from his residence i am sure he can hear as i am hearing the daily and nightly shouting and the wahabie regime mecenaries terrorizing the people of Bahrain, actually the first attack by rulling family dictator thugs at Saar people happened to be from a house belong to an old police officer Killed and tortured thousands of Bahraini people Col Adel Fulaifel, the house must be less than 300 meters from the american embassoder residence.
We the peole of Bahrain have been fighting for our rights generation after generation and international condition keep changing around us, in the nineties we called black saturday the same eppisode exactely the rulling Family dictators, security storm Bani Jamra and killed 7 people and enjured hunderds and detained around 6500 people, all political figures were arrested.
So what actually happening nowadays is another battle in our war, we have never trusted the Killer Kalifa Family and they will never trusted us in the past, that why we are not in security forces and the american have no choice actually if they want to continue in bahrain is to take side for the last 3 weeks they taking the dark ages dictator side, the american admin and embassoder knows the actual real ground truth, and the struggle will continue. I do not see any middle ground or any room to negotiate our Basic Human rights values and principals.
We will win i hope at the end for Our Justice, Equality, Freedom and right to elect accountable government, we will maintain the noble human right values as those are the pricipals we always fight for and those values we really as bahrainied understand how noble they are.
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
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