Posted By Marc Lynch Share

Friday's attack on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo by protestors marching from Tahrir Square and the subsequent harsh security crackdown could become an epic fail for the Egyptian revolution. That's not because Egyptians shouldn't protest against Israel if that's what angers them, and it's not because the incident is likely to escalate to war. It's because the incident could easily become an excuse for the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF) to postpone elections, expand rather than surrender its Emergency Law powers, and avoid the transfer of power to a legitimate civilian government. What's more, these moves might now win applause rather than condemnation among key constituencies: revolutionaries who were already skeptical of elections, liberals worried that Islamists will win, and Americans and others abroad worried about the implications of Egyptian democracy for Israel. 

This would be a terrible mistake. The absence of any legitimate political institutions seven months after Mubarak's fall and the SCAF's arbitrary and unaccountable rule are what created the political vaccuum which has brought Egypt to this edge. Yesterday's chaos should not be taken as a reason to postpone a democratic transition. It should instead be a powerful reminder of the urgency of sticking to the timeline for elections and getting on with the business of building an Egyptian democracy. Those who care about Egypt completing its revolution should now be doubling down on the urgency of a real democratic transition -- not backing away from it.   

I'm not going to go over what happened Friday night yet again, or repeat what I wrote last week about how Egypt got to this point -- for a review, go read my introduction to the new POMEPS Brief on the State of the Egyptian Revolution (free download).  I'll just say that Friday's protest has hardly resolved the growing strategic and identity problems of a protest movement divided between revolutionaries and liberals and struggling to connect with an impatient and frustrated Egyptian public.  The September 9 Tahrir demonstration had been meant to "correct the path" of the revolution after this summer's struggles.  Even before the Embassy incident, the results had been mixed. It generated very real energy and enthusiasm among the participants, and activists have high hopes that the energy will carry over to a wave of strikes across the country planned for this and coming weeks. Despite the relatively small turnout (maybe 20,000) and the cacophany of different demands muddying the message, people in Tahrir on Friday reported positive energy and more enthusiasm than had been felt in months. 

Activists and observers disagree unusually sharply about the Israeli Embassy storming. The international response has been almost universally negative, with the Western media filled with images of a violent mob and a revolution gone awry. The pessimists about the Arab uprisings are claiming vindication. Many Egyptian liberals as well watched horrified, convinced that the revolutionaries had just given the SCAF all the excuse it needed to crack down even harder. They see Friday's chaos as a dangerous move away from demanding democracy and domestic reform. Many people are darkly speculating that the Israeli Embassy incident must have been a set-up by the SCAF (why was the Embassy so lightly guarded) or by Islamists to discredit the revolution (even if Islamists by all accounts were absent from the scene). 

The most fervent online revolutionaries, by contrast, consider the attack on the Embassy and the flight of the Israeli Embassy staff a great success.  Revolutions require escalation and street conflict, especially when the SCAF has proven (in their eyes) that it will not change without real popular pressure. They seem baffled by the hand-wringing of critics, don't care about international perceptions, and doubt whether the SCAF could get any worse (Sarah Carr gives an eloquent presentation of this perspective here). Protesting against Israel is genuinely popular among Egyptians, some reckon, and allows them a rare opportunity to outflank cautious Islamists on the nationalist card.  

In my view, the greatest tragedy of the Embassy crisis is that the most urgent demands articulated for September 9 have been completely lost. Last week's major demands were urgent and compelling:  ending military trials, judicial and police reform, and setting a timetable for a return to civilian rule.  Nobody is talking about those issues today. All the talk instead is of the storming of the Israeli Embassy and the resulting chaos. The gap between the different strands of the January 25 coalition has never seemed wider. Those who hope for rapid, fundamental political change towards democracy are on the defensive. And the move against the Israeli Embassy feels depressingly familiar rather than revolutionary. How could the very activists who began their campaign by demonstrating in Tahrir in support of the Palestinian Intifada ten years ago forget that Hosni Mubarak happily let protestors demonstrate against Israel as long as they avoided domestic issues?

These are issues for Egyptians to resolve. But here in Washington I can only urge the Obama administration, Congress, and the American public not to allow the incident to be used as an excuse to delay elections or to avoid serious reforms. They should not accept the SCAF's arguments that this weekend shows the need for a strong hand and a delay of democratic reforms. The needs for ending military trials and for judicial and police reform are just as urgent today as they were yesterday. The need for a transition to rule by a fairly elected civilian government has never been more clear. The SCAF's ongoing, arbitrary and unaccountable military rule -- along with its increasingly reckless fomenting of a xenophobic nationalism --  created the conditions for yesterday's clashes. Allowing the SCAF to back away from real institutional reforms and a timeline for elections would kill what hopes remain for Egyptian democracy, empower radicals, discredit and block those who have committed to preparing for elections, and force people back into the streets for lack of other alternatives.  That's would only guarantee that the crisis will get worse. 

DAVID BUIMOVITCH/AFP/Getty Images

 

ARAD7613

4:25 PM ET

September 12, 2011

As an Israeli, I would like to say...

The attack on our embassy came as no surprise. As a matter of fact, I'm glad we got an excuse to get our people out of there. They have no business being in Egypt at this time.

This exposes the lie of the "peace" we signed with the Egyptians. Mubarak was our ally, mainly for his own interests, but he never educated his people to accept Israel. Hatred of Israel, and even rabid Antisemitism, run wild in Egyptian society.

The tragedy is, this is one of the main things that prevented us from reaching peace with our other neighbors. If the Egyptians showed us that they are sincere about the peace we signed, Israelis would have been a lot more willing to make sacrifices for peace with the Palestinians and the Syrians. Ask any Israeli, and they will tell you that.

So now, all the hate built over the years is exploding. But our hope is that Egypt does form some sort of democracy, and that will enable us to finally make ties with the Egyptian people, and in time, build a real peace.

So yeah, the last thing we need now is for SCAF to take over, and return to the faux-pax we had with Mubarak. Hopefully, now that there are no Israelis there to be used as scapegoats and distraction, the Egyptians will get to business.

 

MATTHEW

10:46 PM ET

September 13, 2011

It is very instructive.....

when Zionists use animal metaphors. Apparently, the Arab Spring is liberating at least for racist Zionists. They seem to multiplying--or at least posting a lot.

 

BB

7:08 PM ET

September 12, 2011

Oh dear, Marc

Only last week you were writing:

" Friday is shaping up as a significant test of the continuing power of the activist groups after a summer where they have struggled ..."

Strange that you did not forsee the old "divert attention to Israel" card would be played!

Am surprised that you still think meangful reforms are on the table given the constitutional changes voted on had all been drawn up in Mubarak's time by the Egyptian armed forces and were put as a sop to the people only with the connivance from the Islamist parties, your beloved Muslim Bro-hood.

That, prof, is the immediate future of Egypt. Democracy has no part to play at this point in their history, otherwise they would have eschewed a strong-man presidential system in favour of a parliamentary one based on proportional representation - which would encourage the development of political parties - plus clear constitutional legislative brakes on executive power, as Iraq did.

Egypt clearly has many horrors to go through before it reaches that point of political maturity. You are wringing your hands, am afraid.

 

MATTHEW

2:27 PM ET

September 13, 2011

Omission

You forgot to add "rule of law." Which, of course, really means, "hold meaningless elections like most Western countries."

If Egypt actually develops a true democracy it will be a result of NOT following the Western model.

 

DOUG12

7:39 PM ET

September 12, 2011

The Situation Seems Complex

It's possible to create common causes for events occurring in Egypt and efforts by the Palestinians in the United Nations for statehood. Some connection exists between the rise of any Palestinian state and future events in the Sinai.

 

GUYVER

12:12 AM ET

September 13, 2011

Not hard

If Israel would just make peace with the Palestinians and refrain from bombing Gaza and Lebanon, Egyptians, and all Arabs, would stop resenting her.

It's that simple.

 

COMETLINEAR

5:41 AM ET

September 13, 2011

It only seems that simple...

If you are a simpleton.

 

MATTHEW

2:34 PM ET

September 13, 2011

Simple truths are not simplistic

Zionists believe that they have "rights" and others have "opportunities." Until there is a fundamental change in Zionist thinking where they actually accept that others have rights, they will never have peace.

Notice word choice. It is always employed to serve the Zionist narrative. Obama, for example, chirps about Israel's "security," never Palestinian "rights." The concept that Palestinians have fundamental human rights is alien to Western politicians.

 

MATTHEW

10:48 PM ET

September 13, 2011

Purpose?

Who is your audience? I doubt other 3rd graders read this site.

 

KUNINO

9:06 PM ET

September 13, 2011

Huh?

I quote: "But here in Washington I can only urge the Obama administration, Congress, and the American public not to allow the incident to be used as an excuse to delay elections or to avoid serious reforms."

Does this mean, as it seems to, that whether there is to be democracy or reform in Egypt is an American decision?

And what have been the recent changes in the Christian population of Egypt? What's being done to protect citizens under attack because they're Christian. Done, that is, by that scrap of an Egyptian government that exists at the moment.

 

MATTHEW

10:55 PM ET

September 13, 2011

The true cart before the horse...

Why don't we focus on protecting the rights of the majority of Egyptians first, and then worry about minorities. I'm a true fan of minority rights. But Westerners didn't seem too concerned when the Mubarak Dictatorship suppressed most Egyptians--not just Christian Egyptians.

If the New Egyptian persecutes only its Christian citizens, that means it will only suppress about 10% of its citizens. The USA was quite happy to support Mubarak when he was supressing 95% of his citizens.

Majority rights would be a major improvement.

 

TOMKJ

11:30 PM ET

September 13, 2011

When Lara Logen was atacked by a mob

People said to not give up on the Egyptian revolution. Now when a mob attacks and overruns a foreign embassy we're being told to have faith. When mobs start lynching Coptic Christians regularly we'll still be told not to lose hope and that it's just the load crazy minority causing all the mess.

 

ZATHRAS

4:26 AM ET

September 14, 2011

Egypt

It would be best for Americans generally and the Obama administration in particular to be objective about what is possible in Egypt, and also about how American influence can best be used.

Over the last six months, American influence has mostly be used in Libya. Egypt was foolishly considered a mission accomplished; academic experts visiting the country cautioned that much was still uncertain, but they were "tremendously impressed" by the energy, creativity and spirit of Egyptian revolutionaries. I am quite certain that one reason they were so impressed is because they thought they had found evidence to confirm a narrative about the Arab Spring that they wanted very badly to believe.

I believe this: that there is in Egypt as in other Arab countries no more than a weak democratic tradition. That the armed forces in Egypt (as in most predominantly Muslim countries along with many others) are less interested in democracy than in protecting their own outsized role and exaggerated status in Egypt's economy and society. That Egyptians -- again, like other Arabs -- have been distracted easily by their government before, and can be again. That a deep and abiding vein of barbarism and savagery, present in the political culture of other Arab states, is present in Egypt as well. That Egypt, once again like other Arab states, is ill-positioned to compete in the global economy regardless of the state of its politics. This factor may turn out to be the most important to the question of whether a more liberal political order, once established, can sustain itself.

But I also believe Egypt is not like other Arab countries, in ways that could be important now. Egypt is far larger, with ancient traditions as the leading nation in the region. It is able to distance itself from international quarrels if it wants to. Its protest movement, and I think also some elements of its military, seem to recognize what an historic mistake was the long period of stagnation under the Mubarak government. There appears to be some recognition that the military cannot govern the country alone, and that no political faction outside the military can overpower all of the others.

So, finally, I believe there is some potential for Egypt to move toward a more liberal, less arbitrary political order, with a responsible civilian government willing and able to grapple with the considerable economic challenges the country will face in the coming years. The Arab Spring narrative tells us such movement will be toward freedom and democracy, and driven by the Egyptians themselves without western "meddling." This is at once a delusion and a conceit. A more liberal political order, with better established property rights and greater acceptance of the rule of law is a worthwhile objective even if it falls short of full democracy in the Western sense (as it almost certainly will) -- but it is not an easy objective for any country in Egypt's circumstances. Considerable assistance from the United States and the West will be needed to increase Egypt's chances for success.

This includes material assistance, but also something easier to provide that may be at least as valuable. The Obama administration should adopt a tone of simple candor in its public statements about political developments in Egypt, eschewing the flattering rhetoric about how inspirational the Arab Spring is and emphasizing instead direct, frank assessments of the challenges Egypt faces and how its political factions -- including, indeed especially, the Egyptian armed forces -- are seen to be responding, or not, to those challenges. Such assessments will provoke criticism and argument in Egypt. Let them.

President Obama and his team should bear clearly in mind that if Libya and Tunisia end up as Jeffersonian democracies and Egypt slides either into turmoil or into Mubarakism without Mubarak, the Arab Spring will have been a setback for the interests of the United States. In the Arab world, unless we are talking exclusively about oil, Egypt is the country that matters.

Over thirty years ago, a era of great promise for the Arab Middle East was poisoned because Arab governments rejected Egyptian leadership. For the regional promise of the Arab Spring to evolve into something enduring in the region, some form of Egyptian leadership must come into being again -- and this is also necessary if the United States is to pursue a necessary policy of retrenchment in the region without leaving chaos behind. Whatever else might be said about America's deep engagement with Arab states from Iraq to Morocco, engagement on the scale of recent years is not something Washington can afford for very much longer. The United States has more important priorities elsewhere, and risks failure in addressing these if it cannot find a way to devote fewer material resources and time to the Arabs. There is no such way that does not require a strong Egypt.

 

SANDLAPPER

4:56 PM ET

September 14, 2011

Since when is democracy a positive institution?

"I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while it lasts, it is more bloody than either. … Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice, or ambition, for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and the most conscientious moralists to resist the temptation. Individuals have conquered themselves. Nations and large bodies of men, never" -- John Adams

I think some people here need to read their Lincoln (especially the Lyceum Address). What the Middle East lacks is reason, while mobs and passion are all too common. If the Arab Spring does not result in secular states, the free world should be worried. For the most part the Islamic world still maintains an Old World mentality. Egypt's quest for democracy is alive and well, but the democracy is subservient to an Islamic totalitarianism.

One can make an analogy between Islamic moderates and white moderates in the South during the turbulent Civil Rights era. It was near impossible to convict any "radicals" on crime, because the moderates could relate to the radicals and the status quo. Think about how much more dangerous that situation can be when religion takes center stage.

Democracy in the Islamic world will only be successful if the moderates appeal to reason and develop a secular state. While being religious, I am not a supporter of any religious state including Israel; however, this latest incident in Egypt just demonstrates how moderates are not demonstrating reason, but appealing to the people's passion through demagoguery . I personally don't believe the forms or institutions necessary for SAFE democracy exist in the M.E., and I think it is ignorant for people to believe that any democracy is just peachy.

 

MATTHEW

11:38 PM ET

September 14, 2011

Where to begin....

Your "White moderates" under Jim Crow analogy is flawed. The people of the Arab world are speaking loudly that they want democracy...and are willing to die to get it. The White Liberals under Jim Crow were participants, albeit relunctant ones, in a racist system. Most liberal whites did not flee to the north. And most Southern whites were not oppressed by the political cystem.

In contrast, the people protesting at Tahrir, in Bahrain, and in Syria are not participants, they are are subjects. Most of these people are oppressed by their governments. This is not the tyranny of the majority; it is the tyranny of foreign-back minorities over majorities.

Furthermore, unlike Jim Crow, the Dictators in the ME are generally armed and supported by either the United States, Europe, Russia, or Iran. Foreigners did not impose Jim Crow on the American South. That horror was a domestic creation. And that difference, pace Mark Twain, is the difference betweeen lightning and the lightning bug.

 

SANDLAPPER

6:44 PM ET

September 19, 2011

Analogy directed towards the post dictator political climate

My analogy was directed towards the political climate of the ME after the uprising against the totalitarian regimes. You misconstrued this example by interpreting it as a way of defending the dictators or applying oppression by the majority to those circumstances. I believe once the current regimes are toppled (in the future) the political climate of the moderate will be similar to that of the Jim Crow South. Note I am not making an analogy to the entire political system. Instead, I believe radicals will be able to thrive in the ME, because the moderates will be unwilling to stop them. In the South whites harbored Klansmen from justice and reason while the future ME political climate will do the same. We are beginning to see this with this particular case in Egypt. The debate over Israel is a completely different subject matter and one in which I am not qualified to speak on behalf because it is not my home. However, the Egyptians are not showing restraint to reason but rather unchecked passion. This passion of the mobs is what Lincoln claimed to be the greatest danger to democracy, and I thoroughly agree with this ideology. Those with fervor will suppress those who are less willing to speak and while the ME might have a democracy, it will not translate into liberty or freedom in which the West enjoys. This has nothing to do with the uprising against the regimes, but rather the aftermath.

If the ME does not become secular, and develops a democracy around any religious institution (in particular Islamic law) passions will be inflamed instead of suppressed. This would create a blind political atmosphere in which democracy would make the region no more free than the current dictators, and protect those in which they may relate while not necessarily condone.

If the Arab Spring is to be successful, the moderates must adhere to reason to quell the passion of the radicals. This is how the South finally turned in the Civil Rights Movement, allowing justice to eventually be obtained by all. The moderates hold the power and how they decide to wield it, or not use it, will determine the stability of the region. Democracy can be used to suppress freedom, and does not automatically mean the citizens of the regime are in fact free.

 

APRA

3:32 AM ET

September 22, 2011

A faux-pas that delays freedom!

Recent attack on Israeli embassy in Cairo has disrupted the ongoing preparations for conducting elections in Egypt and peaceful transfer of power to a democracy-based government. This attack has defeated the cause for which the Egyptian revolution was fought and raised suspicion in its allies about their preparedness to lead a democratic life. Egypt’s revolutionary attack is being viewed negatively by both the observers and the allies alike and does not forebode the end of military trials in the near future. Without involvement of something like natural anti inflammatory to repair this chaotic situation, it would only be wise to say that, Egypt will now need to wait for long to achieve its dream of a civilian rule.

 

KEENY

6:03 AM ET

October 5, 2011

keeny

ISRAELI DIPLOMATS REFUSE TO RETURN TO CAIRO

Since the attempt to storm the Israeli embassy in Cairo, the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu is making strenuous efforts in the search for diplomats to accept work in Egypt, amid a state of hostility to Tel Aviv, especially after the death of six members of the Egyptian security forces shot dead by Israeli occupation army on the border .

The newspaper «Maariv» Israel yesterday that the search is on for diplomats singles and single women only to work in the embassy, in addition to the continued search for a new headquarters to the embassy instead of the current headquarters in Giza .

The newspaper quoted officials in the Israeli Foreign Ministry as saying that it would be difficult for the ministry to find suitable persons to work in the embassy without having to have families, adding that plans are underway to reduce the number of workers in the embassy to only the ambassador and diplomat, politician and consul-only .

According to «Maariv» that even Jacob Ambassador Amity, supposed for more…www.visionnews.com/arabic

 

TERENCE

4:37 AM ET

October 10, 2011

Am surprised that you still

Am surprised that you still think meaningful reforms are on the table given the constitutional changes voted on had all been drawn up in homeideas Mubarak's time by the Egyptian armed forces and were put as a sop to the people only with the connivance from the Islamic parties, your beloved Muslim Bro-hood.

 

Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

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