Sunday, February 5, 2012 - 12:56 PM

The veto cast by Russia and China on Saturday blocked action by the United Nations Security Council to back the Arab League's initiative to stop the killing and facilitate a political transition in Syria. The vetos came despite a concerted effort by the resolution's backers to meet the most significant objections, in particular their consistently repeated assurance that there would be no military intervention. It was not the "revenge of the BRICS" as some have suggested, since both India and South Africa backed the 13-2 majority (and Brazil would have done so had it still been on the Council). US Ambassador Susan Rice called the vetos "shameful." I agree.
The failed UN resolution was not perfect, but for all the reasons I outlined last week it offered the best hope for mobilizing sustained international pressure on the Asad regime. It would have sent a powerful signal to Syrians on all sides of international consensus, held out at least some hope for a political path, and required observation of the mandated ceasefire and regular reporting to the Security Council. Many sympathetic with the Syrian opposition had blasted the resolution as worse than nothing since it did not authorize military intervention or, in its final version, explicitly call for Asad to step down. They were mistaken, as I think many now realize.
The veto will diminish the relevance of the United Nations and increase the odds that Syria will descend even further into a civil war fueled by a flood of weapons and aid to all parties. Before the vote, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton warned that "the endgame, in the absence of us acting together as the international community, is civil war." She was right. The UN's failure won't end regional and international efforts to deal with the escalating brutality, but it will now force those efforts into other, less effective and less internationally legitimate channels. The already slim prospects for a "soft landing" in Syria, with a political transition deal ending the violence, are now closer to complete collapse.
I do not believe that we are heading for the direct American military intervention for which a vocal, if small, band of liberal hawks yearn, however. Nor should there be one. No advocate of American military intervention has yet offered any suggestions of how specific actions might actually produce the desired goals given the nature of the fighting. Air strikes and no-fly zones can not tip the balance in a civil war environment fought in densely populated urban areas where the U.S. lacks reliable human intelligence; recall that an air campaign took six months to succeed in Libya under much more favorable conditions. Safe area and humanitarian corridor proposals remain impractical. Advocates of military action should not be allowed to dodge the question of the likely escalation to ground forces -- which virtually everyone agrees would be disastrous -- after the alternatives fail. And there is zero political appetite for a military intervention: it is difficult to miss that every single speaker at the United Nations, including the Arab League and Qatar, explicitly ruled one out.
I expect calls to mount for the provision of weapons to the Free Syrian Army, or for that to simply happen without fanfare. But nobody should be fooled into thinking that this is a panacaea. Arming the weaker side in a fully-fledged, internationalized civil war is much more likely to produce a painful stalemate than a quick, decisive outcome. Asad's allies will reciprocate with their own support. That support, along with a military which evidently remains loyal and willing to kill and intensifying sectarian dynamics which could keep fence-sitters with the regime, could keep a civil war going a long time. Syria would become a regional vortex, 1980s Lebanon on steroids: a protracted and violent civil war, fueled by arms shipments and covert, proxy interventions by all parties. Does anyone really think this is a good path?
Whatever the outcome of that battle on the ground, Syria under the Asad regime will never be rehabilitated in the region or the international community. In a statement shortly before the Council vote, President Obama declared: "The Syrian regime's policy of maintaining power by terrorizing its people only indicates its inherent weakness and inevitable collapse. Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community." His strong statement, while more than justified, might have been better held until after the vote since it may have fueled suspicions about the objectives of the Arab League initiative. Indeed, Russia's U.N. envoy Vitaly Churkin blamed the resolution's backers for promoting a strategy aimed at "regime change" But if the goal of the veto was to keep the goals of international action limited, the result will be the opposite. The end of the UN option will now make the goal of regime change in Damascus more explicit.
It isn't only the UN which will become less relevant. The Arab League is also about to become less effective, as the gavel moves from Doha to Baghdad at the end of March. It isn't just that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is sympathetic to Asad, on the Shi'a side of a new Arab cold war, or deferential to Tehran. It's that Iraqi politics are themselves an ongoing muddle, leaving little bandwidth for any kind of foreign policy activism. What's more, Iraq remains something of a pariah in the Arab world, particularly in the Shi'a-phobic quarters of the Gulf Cooperation Council such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (which has already announced that it will boycott the Arab Summit scheduled for Baghdad at the end of March). Arab divisions will likely become more evident than Arab unity as the crisis escalates, as the GCC pushes its own agenda and the Arab League reverts to its traditional impotence.
Part of my personal frustration lies in the effect that this will have beyond Syria. The U.S. and its allies will continue to find other ways to try to deal with the Syrian crisis, even without the UN. But the failure of the UN to act, as Secretary General Ban Ki Moon suggested, harms the institution itself by revealing its inability to act in defense of the Charter's promise. The next stages, whether military or not (and I expect not), will more resemble the Kosovo and Iraq campaigns which were launched without international legitimacy. This will significantly undermine the prospects that such actions will contribute to the positive development of international norms of atrocity prevention or the more controversial "responsibility to protect." That is tragic for an administration which has prioritized the UN and, with the exception of its hopeless diplomacy on the Israeli-Palestinian file, has done well with it.
I will have a report coming out soon which lays out some positive policy proposals for how to build more effective international action without war after the UN failure. Stay tuned.
A new organization exists that hopefully will bring pressure to bear on the UN's initiative of Responsibility to Protect.
http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/
One way or another, R2P, to have teeth, will have to be decoupled from UNSC, otherwise it's just another nice thought and pretty platform for endless blather.
The U.N. did not really fail Syria. The U.S. pushed plan for Syria failed, but that failure was good for the Syrian people. If the U.S. pushed U.N. Resolution that failed at the U.N. Security Council was put for vote an the U.N. General Assembly, in which 193 states can vote on an issue presented, more than 100 would have voted against it. When Hillary Clinton calls the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) failure to agree on an acceptable plan for Syria "a travesty," therefore, the world just doesn't buy it! Instead, the world sees a skewed U.S. effort to make up for the recent losses of its puppet regimes in Tunisia and Egypt by turning the Arab Spring of Syria on its head! And if it could be successful, the U.S. could score a big victory on its efforts to wean Syria out of Iran's influence, to cut off its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, and to close the Russian naval base in the Mediterranean Sea.
Yes, the U.S. failure at the UNSC to demand the overthrow of Bashar Assad scuttles the U.S. and Israeli insidious plans for re-mapping the Middle East, but the scuttling is just fine for the majority of Syrians. The majority of Syrians support the regime, and they chaff at the U.S. approval of Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights, and for building a dam on the Golan Heights to steal water and deprive Syria and Jordan from badly needed water resources. (Israeli newspaper Haaretz, November 26, 2006) Now the U.S. pushes the "unknowns and the nobodies" in the fractious and infighting bands of the Syrian opposition as "the new government of Syria!" Even the former U.S. Undersecretary of State Richard Murphy admitted yesterday that there is suspicion on who the Syrian opposition is, or whom they represent. (Al Jazeera, February 4, 2012).
The Syrian Spring started well, and deserved full support. But when it was highjacked by individuals who became pawns of foreign powers, they are not Arab Spring bearers anymore! I don't have any doubt that social changes are coming to Syria, but I don't see any Western stooges taking over control of Syria. Nikos Retsos, retired professor
I'm a bit surprised there was ever any doubt about Russia's veto.
Yes, the UN has hurt its relevance, however...
R2P can far too easily be used to justify a great number of actions that would be contrary to the spirit of the UN Charter if push comes to shove. Yes, the Russians and the Chinese vetoed the Syrian resolution. But what did we expect? Taking away the veto power, as Rosco pointed out on the Multilateralist blog, is simply a no-go. The alternative to the UNSC is... well, nothing. I personally despise the veto, but it's a method for keeping the P5 on board.
Interestingly, Mark used Kosovo as an example of an illegitimate action within the same sentence with Iraq. Kosovo was a legitimate operation in the eyes of international community, but Iraq was far from in any kind of legitimacy.
I would have expected Mark to give examples from Israeli-Palestinian conflict and consistent US vetoes regarding to any criticism to Israel and connect this to UN Security Council's impractical status.
Remind us, how was the Kosovo intervention a legitimate operation in the eyes of the international community?
Like the Iraq invasion it had no UN Security Council approval.
( But it did serve as a precedent for Iraq, and later, Libya.)
The figure of 100,000 dead Kosovo Albanians turned out to be actually around 5,000 - about the same as Serb civilians killed by the Albanian KLA.
The Racak massacre, the trigger for intervention, turned out to be a staged hoax.
( Credit should go to William Walker, western media, and the embryos of R2P. )
The arguments for intervention were much like stories of the Weapons Of Mass Destruction that Iraq was supposed to possess but ultimately did not.
It did however, enable the Albanians to ethnically cleanse some 250,000 Serbs and other non Albanians, including other muslims, an agenda already underway for several decades but expedited with Nato protection.
Although applauded by most muslims, the Kosovo "operation" had no more legitimacy than the subsequent invasion of Iraq.
" It comes as a great shock to see Gary Cooper killing off the Indians, and although you are rooting for Gary Cooper, that the Indians are you." - James Baldwin 1965.
And people thought the Arab League investigations were going to be the real hang up in stopping this megalomaniac. I love that people also thought China and Russia would at least remain neutral on Syria. Crazy loves company; those countries are three little peas in a pod. I guess I hope for too much when I say that maybe this will signal the death knell of Security Council permanent member veto power.
I am not surprised. Russia and China are more interested in their arms trade with Syria and other dictatorships than with human rights, freedom, and democracy.
Such nonsense.
A UNSC resolution would not have "stopped the killing", nor would it have induced Assad to hand over power to anyone.
How could it?
Why should he?
The only people who are claiming that this resolution would have been effective are the same people who claimed that a UNSC resolution on Israel/Palestine wouldn't change anything and therefore must be vetoed.
Honestly, the hypocrisy is nauseating.
This is very simple: the USA and its allies pushed through a resolution on Libya, and both Russia and China were tricked into abstaining from that vote.
NATO then proceded to do exactly what they said they wouldn't do i.e. use that resolution to justify a military intervention in a civil war in support of one side over the other.
Once bitten, twice shy.
If the USA had wanted Russia and China to get onboard then maybe - juuuuuust maybe - they should look back at that little sleight-of-hand and ask themselves just how stupid they think Putin really is.
Answer: he so stupid that he'll make the same mistake twice.
the awesome hubris in Rice, and some other's, statements, re the 'outrageous' nature of the veto. This is the Black Hole calling the kettle black. Look at who has been using the veto over the last decades and in defence of what if you want to see outrageous.
Quote: I am not surprised. Russia and China are more interested in their arms trade with Syria and other dictatorships than with human rights, freedom, and democracy.
from MICHAELGERALDPDEALINO,
- You are dead wrong when you stated that China had arms deal w/ Syria, it is only the Russian that had deal w/ Syria.
China don't have any real interest in Syria, nonwhatsoever.
Granted China has very dismal human rights record.
In this case, China simply went along w/ Russia for whatever geopoliticAL reason and content to ride in Russian coattail for now.
Far contrary to whatever China bashers that China is the greatest single evil present on this planet,
Go Take on Russia If you got any ball at ALL!!!!!
These who malign China will have to pay eventually, it is all personal fron now on
I don't think the main point is that a UN Security Council resolution would make a difference in giving a boost to an effort towards cease fire. What you are saying is that RUSSIAN and CHINESE votes for the resolution would have added strength. This would have signaled a change in those two countries' position. And that is the only thing that matters: Assad would see 'allies' peeling off.
But what would the resolution have done? It was watered down to entice Russia and China, and the NSC already rejects foreign military intervention. All the supporters of the resistance will continue that support and do whatever they would have done with a SC resolution as without one.
Rice's crocodile tears claiming the Russian veto 'outrageous' are really silly and amateurish on this one. For better or worse, the UN was founded on the principle that no state has the right to interfere with another. The reason? That type of interference led to carnage in WW1 and WW2, thanks to all-out war among Western nations. Again for better or worse, Russian and China claimed that principle for their actions.
The US is making this a bigger 'set-back' than it is. The State Department is just so dam pissed-off and doesn't know what else to do.
And you thought it would come out differently?!?
This was no surprise and barely newsworthy. The UN is about as dysfunctional and polarized these days as the U.S. Congress. Indeed, it is a waste of American taxpayer money. We already give out billions in aid to countries with populations that generally despise us, why do we need to contribute to the UN? The UN is the definition of insanity, i.e. doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. China and Russia will never agree with Europe and the US on sanctions. And don't even get me started on peacekeeping missions. Doesn't anyone understand that to keep the peace, there actually has to be peace to begin with? You can't send in the blue helmets to a warzone with no license to kill and expect them to accomplish security, much less peace. Enough is enough. Dismantle the UN before they enact this absurd world poverty tax, which will end up being some huge embezzelement scandal similar to the Iraq Oil for Food program.
THE US IS HEAVILY INDEBTED TO THE REST OF THE WORLD
It is not correct to write "[Americans] already give out billions in aid to countries with populations that generally despise us," In fact, America owes at least 4 trillion dollars to the rest of the world, and not so long ago, world financial markets went berserk when there was the prospect that America may default. Shame.
IT IS NOT THE UN, BUT NATO, THAT IS FAILING SYRIA
The Syrian people want to get rid of dictatorship and a brutal regime, but not to have it replaced by a potentially more brutal foreign-installed puppet regime. FP is sinking very, very low by spinning the Western camp's lie that it is the UN that is failing Syria. It was NATO and the usual imperialists of the UNSC that thoroughly discredited NATO by abusing the terms of UNSC REsolution 1973, which authorised only the imposition of a no-fly zone, to effect regime change without any restraint on the commission of war crimes to achieve that objective.
Russia and China have allowed their own paranoia about self-generated internal political unrest to put themselves in a position to be manipulated by the regime in Damascus. Their veto of the UN Resolution presents, in Technicolor, a picture of governments standing up for the right to gun down unarmed political protesters in cold blood.
Having said that....the leadership of at least three western countries needs to be more honest with itself and with Western publics about very recent history. The Russian government is not wrong to observe that the Western attack against the former Libyan government was justified in naked, promiscuous bad faith as a humanitarian "responsibility to protect" intervention. It was actually an intervention directed at overthrowing the Libyan government.
The Western attack on Libya was accompanied by a great deal of rhetoric about a moral responsibility to prevent the death of thousands. It made possible a months-long civil war that resulted in the death of thousands. Finally, the Western attack on Libya was proclaimed as a triumphant new chapter in The Narrative of the Arab Spring, in which liberating political change was being brought about by the Arabs themselves -- notwithstanding the large amounts of American ordnance delivered by American aircraft that made this liberating political change possible.
The amount of public deception, and self-deception, on the part of the Obama administration and the British and French governments with respect to Libya in 2011 plays its part in world attitudes toward the Syria policy of those governments now. It is not a good enough reason for either Beijing or Moscow to have invested their prestige in a course that serves no Chinese or Russian national interest -- indeed, Russia appears to be making the same mistake it has so often in the past, trying to play the great power when its resources do not permit this. Everything it has invested in Syria for decades will be lost if the Assad regime falls, as it is likely to do eventually. But Western governments' outrage is expressed without any recognition that the last great triumph of humanitarian intervention wasn't all that great and had a dubious relationship to humanitarianism.
One more thing: the self-deception on the part of Western governments is probably more damaging in the long run than the public bad faith over Libya last year, or the overwrought rhetoric covering the lack of good options on Syria today. The response of the Assad government to political protest is exactly, to the last detail, what might have been expected from an Arab government with a strong army facing a challenge to its legitimacy. For all the airy academic talk about new or evolving international norms, violence by the state aimed in the direction of internal threats has been a notable feature of Arab political culture for a very long time, and in Syria more than in most places.
Not only Western governments but Western academics want very much to believe that this isn't true, or that it doesn't matter, or that we shouldn't take it into account because the Arab countries are not unique in their traditional approach to dissent. They have a responsibility to base policy and analysis on something more substantial than what they would like to be true, but they are not doing it -- not in public, anyway.
This emotional devotion to a narrative will lead to policy mistakes. It has already led the Obama administration to declare the Egyptian revolution last year, in effect, Mission Accomplished -- allowing it to turn its attention to several other Arab countries last year while the military in the only Arab country that really matters solidified its position. And I fear it will lead Western governments to assume that Mission Accomplished in Syria will be the fall of the Assad regime, when in fact this is likely to produce a fraught situation between Syria's Sunni Arabs and the minorities hitherto protected by the Syrian Baathists.
If Richard Holbrooke were still alive, he would recognize that Syria is not Bosnia -- withdrawal or overthrow of the bad guys in Damascus, desirable or not in the long term, will create serious problems with serious consequences. His less sophisticated former principals in the White House and State Department insist on presenting Syria as a simple morality play, as they did Libya last year. They end up being surprised when not everyone accepts what they say at face value now, and they are likely to be surprised by what happens in Syria later.
Clearly this is a highly contentious issue and a number of good arguments have been made on the subject. However, there are scant comments on the archaic composition of the security council, a veritable old boys club, to say nothing of two very undemocratic countries in the midst of democracies.
There has been much foot- dragging by all its members to keep other democracies out of the exclusive club, never mind that almost all of the members are in its economic and political decline. But the most outrageous aspect is that the security council has two members, i.e, Russia and China that have no right to sit in the high council. The US has to take its share of the blame for perpetuating this sham. It never showed real leadership in wanting to reform an outdated organization.
Recent events have proved once again that as long as Russia and China occupy council seats, unanimous and principled agreement is near impossible. Reform is desperately and urgently required to reflect current realities.
The world sees a skewed U.S. effort to make up for the recent losses of its puppet regimes in Tunisia and Egypt by turning the Arab Spring of Syria on its head! And if it could be successful, the U.S. could score a big victory on its efforts to wean bet365 bonus Syria out of Iran's influence, to cut off its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, and to close the Russian naval base in the Mediterranean Sea.
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
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